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[–] 3 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Who do you think is going to be buying DRAM at the current prices in 2027?

Before the bubble, there used to be oversupply of DRAM leading to price fixing scandals, that's what will eventually happen again.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    Probably anyone who wants RAM. 2027 production is mostly already sold, the shortage isn't going away until there's more fabs. 2027 is more likely to see higher prices than lower.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    Production being sold out doesn't mean anything when there are no commercial entities left to actually pay the bill.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 weeks ago

    You should look into what is actually going on in the industry, the bills are getting paid. Companies are even pre-paying for future allocations, and there is a transition towards 5 year contracts.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 weeks ago* (1 child)

    Unfortunately, we're not going to get an over supply of DRAM once the bubble pops.

    Most of the current production is HBM, which is juuust architecturally different enough from DRAM to not be useful for desktop computers

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  • [–] 1 point 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    I was under the impression that the underlying memory chips are the ones we have a shortage of, and HBM is just one way to package them?

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  • [–] 1 point 5 days ago

    what we actually have a shortage of is the underlying memory chip fabs. That is, the machines that can take the silicon and stamp them into DRAM/HBM/whatever else you need.

    So, once the bubble pops and enough of those free up to (potentially) resume manufacturing DRAM sticks at the rate they were back in 2025, we'll get regular inventory again, but there won't be a surplus.

    You can't pluck out the silicon from an already built chip and shove it in another, unfortunately 😅, and I don't think anyone will be able to build an adapter that lets you plug HBM into DRAM slots because they're architecturally just different enough for that to be infeasible.

    So that will leave all those AI machines as scrap the hyperscalers have to deal with, but won't help the rest of us.

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