Experts [โฆ] have updated 2024 YR4โs chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes.
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That would be so cool!
That's what you say now, but wait until all the Moon Hornets come out.
Have you read Seveneves?
So realistically, what would happen if there was a collision like this?
It's a pretty significant hit, but not enough to meaningfully change the moon's orbit, so no long term impacts from that. Maybe a pretty meteor shower from the material ejected? Probably not enough material to cause a significant amount of surface heating.
Don't look up
I once had a dream I was swimming in a river, and when I looked up at the night sky I saw something impact the Moon and shatter it, sending chunks down to Earth's surface.
Time to get that doomsday hype train rolling again for 2024 YR4! I don't even know how large an object would need to be in order to do something like that, probably larger than this is. I guess it'll just have to remain a dream, sigh.
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