I mean really the same problem with Monarchy. Once someone somehow gets on top very hard to remove them and their descendants from power even if the original person or their descendants are complete idiots.

There there. Give some credit to the American people. They're the ones that elected him. Twice.

Yeah, look at Zuckerberg, who recently burned billions on his crappy virtual reality project, and is now doing the same with AI.

They have been able to use it on less powerful deceives lately. I’m waiting for something like an ebook reader to be able to run an LLM. Imagine you forget who a character is and the on device AI parses the whole book and explains what you have forgotten.

Oh my god thank you. Somehow despite being engulfed in this stuff being an I.T person while having affection toward Ed Zitran and full agreement on almost all arguments living this weird ying yang over the topic.

This is the succinct detail I hadn't clued into until this moment of what the core motivation is for all of the crazy spending that makes zero sense. It's literally this. There is no amount of money, lying, cheating or stealing that cannot be justified by the most cynical of capitalist if they believe this is the outcome.

It's such an obvious thing when you put it like that and I'm even sure I've seen it said before but it really hit me for some reason from your comment. They would move mountains if they thought there was even the smallest chance and bet the entire farm over it.

First you have recognize there is no barriers to their cynicism I guess but this is the only root cause conclusion that could be rationalized. That or fomo and temporary wins but for those spending and not on any receiving end, I couldn't make sense of the rational until you said it so plainly.

They are paying for fantasy about rendering people redundant, the sik fuks.

It's not even capitalism anymore, assuming they expect their peers in corruption to actuallg pay each other and themselves a fair amount.

Well the jerk store called, and they're running out of you!

I bet they get bailed one last time by the government, then people start dying fast.

For some reason, I find this satisfying and funny. The landscape has been changing. The open-weight models from Chinese labs are getting really good and becoming a serious threat to the closed models from American AI companies.

Interestingly, Google, Meta, and Microsoft — who all have revenue streams outside of AI — recognize the threat are getting more supportive about open-weight models. Anthropic and OpenAI support keeping models closed for "safety" reasons.

This has Ponzi elements, but it's closer to a multi-company Enron in its structure. They're manufacturing fake revenues through circular investments. Nvidia invests in AI companies and increases their value while AI companies use that investment to buy Nvidia cards increasing its value so, so they invest more in AI, so they buy more cards....

Enron did this by making fake companies to generate fake revenue. Right now the tech sector is all working together on this scheme, so none of the companies are fake, but the revenue is.

That's pretty much what is driving the entire AI "boom". It's the Amazon effect.

Amazon, and Netflix to a certain extent as well as a number of other early internet startups, lost money for around 10 years before they started making shit tons. And everybody wants to be on that particular ride. So they are queueing up in every AI line they can find to hedge their bets on one of them being the one that survives and thrives. It doesn't really occur to any of them that all of them could fail. Because "AI is the future". Except there is no plan to monetize any of them. And so far every time one of them introduces a charge, people stop using it.

He forgot the: Because investors are now the only ones with money to spend.

Yeah and the biggest issue is covered well here: https://www.notesfromthecircus.com/p/the-house-of-ellison-is-on-the-brink

Essentially: the profits are in the infrastructure end (AI companies paying for parts to build the data centres) not the consumer facing end (the actual models - customer paying AI companies). The money is coming from investors buying in to AI in the hope of winning the supposed arms race to be The One True AI. The whole thing depends on the revenues in the consumer facing end going up to show this is a growing market and make people believe they will eventually reach profit. But the revenues in the consumer facing end are fake and being inflated by circular movements of money including companies like Nvidia paying companies like OpenAI to buy product, or OpenAI paying for product in stock. The revenue inflation is very similar to how Enron inflated it's books its revenue appear higher than it really was.

The brutal reality is: there will not be One True AI to Rule Them All. Instead AI is looking increasingly like a commodity - people will just use the cheapest, simplest tool to do the task, rather than play inflated prices for a swiss army knife AI. And people can host those cheap, simple AIs aleady at home, or on servers in the cloud, or companies can also do the same. The whole US bubble is predicated on spending as much money as possible to stake a claim in a future Google, when it's looking more like it'll be like the fast food sector with razor thin margins. Some of these companies may end up profitable but this is going to be a hell of a lot more competitive and less profitable than the valuations assume.

Expect a very nasty correction.