you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] 25 points 5 months ago (9 children)

Does Iran actually have the capability to close the Strait though? I thought every naval asset they have has been flattened.

  • source
  • hideshow 18 child comments
  • [–] 67 points 5 months ago* (2 children)

    It’s already closed. The threat and the resulting insurance pull is all that’s needed. https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
  • [–] 55 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Iran can close the straight with like 2 dudes with RPGs.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 23 points 5 months ago (5 children)

    I'm picturing two Iranian guys, sitting in beach chairs next to the straight, sipping coctails, next to a crate marked "RPG".

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 10 child comments
  • [–] 36 points 5 months ago* (1 child)

    Trade ships will redirect at even the threat of being met with any confrontation. It is not worth the risk. Iran doesn't need a Navy to do this either. They need a couple dudes with AKs in a speedboat.

    For more info. Just look at Yemen's blockade as an example.

    Ships aren't gonna risk massive payloads. Insurance won't cover the loss either.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 21 points 5 months ago* (1 child)

    Don't even need to get near the ocean, they can just sit inland and launch drones and rockets at passing ships like the Houthis did.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Yep. Which is why I'm really confused by the reports of them "mining" it today. I'm really wondering if it's just a fake "win" the US is trying to manufacture.

    Maybe they are trying to do it. But it doesn't make sense at all with their messages of allowing passage to states that boot US and Israeli ambassadors. Even if the mines can be deactivated it still doesn't make sense strategically for Iran to do that.

    Was watching the reporting live with CBS saying that Iran was placing mines. Then Trump gets on and says we stopped them from doing it. Just doesn't add up at all.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 child)

    Yeah. Every major news outlet is complicit. Charlie's Broadcast Station is full Nazi now. I have have cut off all mainstream media for my sanity because it certainly isn't making more informed.

    As for the mine claims, I think it's that Iran knows how our chickenshit post-industrialized vibe economy works. Just claiming they've mined the strait is causing the market to shit it's pants regardless of it it's true or not.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago

    Interesting take on the mines I haven't thought about. Would make sense.

    I agree. I do still try to follow how the mainstream media is trying to build its narrative. Though I would definitely be mentally healthy without it.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 20 points 5 months ago*

    Considering it has signficantly affected oil prices. Yes.

    A large amount of ships are currently stuck in the persian gulf. A significant portion of this is because they do not want to take the risk. The threat is enough to be effective but Iran is also enforcing it.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 20 points 5 months ago

    Oil tankers tend to be a pretty risk-averse group. They're not going to risk getting hit and having their multi-million dollar cargo go up in flames, even if the risk of getting hit while transiting the strait is relatively low.

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 9 points 5 months ago

    The Straits are 20 miles at the narrowest. they can hit ships with artillery. Plus they also have drones, which they've been using to hit over ten oil tankers since the illegal war began

  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 5 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    I've been wondering the same thing.

    It's a baller thing to say. But if they've lost air superiority (or even if it's compromised) then it doesn't mean much.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 6 child comments
  • [–] [S] 43 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    I read somewhere that Iran can close the strait without a full-scale naval engagement using selective drone strikes and harassing vessels, Iran triggers a spike in maritime insurance premiums which will choke shipping companies. Also because of the narrow width of the strait, also shallow, Iran can use mines, they have both simple contact mines to sophisticated "smart" mines, apparently they possesses one of the largest naval mine inventories in the world.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 6 child comments
  • [–] 22 points 5 months ago

    Those are fair points. They don't need to block all targeted traffic. They just have to be enough of a threat/pain in the ass for transportation and insurance rates to go up to an uncomfortable level. It's all about threat and perception.

    Sure, the US air force and navy could bomb the shit out of their artillery placements. But given how (relatively) cheap and effective drones are, that might not be as effective as it seems at first.

  • source
  • parent
  • [+] -34 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    They're a petrostate with a hopelessly outdated air force, the US or any other developed country can destroy their infrastructure at their leisure and bring their economy to it's knees. Which they would happily do if Iran sinks a vessel flagged in their waters.

    They also need a working vessel to lay those mines.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 8 child comments
  • [–] 21 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    You realize that threats like this don't work AFTER you already did it, right?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [+] -9 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    There will be something they haven't hit yet.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
  • [–] 14 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Sure, and they are going to bomb it regardless, you see the problem with killing the people you were negotiating with? The next guy isn't going to come to the table.

    Think Americans are going to give up all their comforts and wealth just to bump off Iran?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 16 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 child)

    lol a country and people that has existed in that region for thousands of years hosting multiple land empires, survived multiple genocidal Mongol hordes....is a petrostate that will crumble if you just bomb some stuff.

    Fucking Americunt MAGA brainrot.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago

    Lmao, what fucking reality do you live in. The war is already going on, they've been attacking iran for like 2 weeks now. What is this "the USA can DESTROY them if they DARE target our ships" shit? Strait's closed. try and open it, bitch

  • source
  • parent
  • [+] -19 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    It's not really baller if everyone just ignores them, and joins a US led convoy through the Strait.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 19 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Neat, the US taxpayers are going to spend billions of dollars to escort oil for the Arabs. All in order to reduce the value of America's own oil exports. How likely do you think that is?

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (1 child)

    Pretty likely. Iran will break before America.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago

    Except you can't even define what that means. How does Iran "break"? They are literally just existing in their country. Where are they supposed to go? Closing the straight was a RESPONSE to American bombings of civilian targets. Are they supposed to just let the US bomb more civilian targets or else they will keep bombing civilian targets? How does that even make sense?

    Conversely, the US is spending billions of dollars to do what, exactly? What are the American people getting back on this investment? Do you really think that Americans are going to tolerate increased costs of every product they purchase forever just to achieve the ....... that is the goal of this whole enterprise?

  • source
  • parent