Went to All Points East in Victoria park today. Nia Archives was on at 5:45. An absolute 10/10 zero notes perfect set. If you haven't caught her live and you like her music it's well worth it.

I'm only really sharing this to give me somewhere to voice my bewilderment. Economists and financial reporters strike me as among the most gullible uncritical people on the planet. Reeves had a panicky Spring statement because of a missing £10bn in the projections for 5 years time!

Now it seems the forecasts were £15bn out at a lead time of a single quarter. Yet I bet come autumn we'll be soberly reviewing the OBR report and talking about how tax changes might impact the final year of the projections.

BTW financial forecasting is hard. Most models are wrong but some are less wrong than others and all that. I'm not arguing against using the best info we have. I'm just astounded by the level of precision we work to at these sorts of lead times, given the evidence before our very eyes of how wide the error bars are.

This popped into my mind the other day, and I've been distracted by it since.... You know when you're trying to recall something, and a wrong answer pops into your head, but you know it's wrong. Like how does that work? E.g. if you're trying to remember who made a song, and your brain can almost simultaneously go - oh it's that band, and then oh no not them. It feels like there has to be two (at least) parts of the brain working on it at the same time.

Maybe I'll be lucky and a neuroscientist will drop in and link me to a paper. More likely it's something to discuss with wild speculation. Either way, I'm hoping writing it down will stop it distracting me.

I'm learning the piano. I think the development is aimed at those a little above my skill level, but it's interesting about what it implies about how we learn physical skills.