Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.

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[–] 122 points 4 months ago (5 children)

Uh oh.

Also, I found some interesting trackers:

https://www.hormuztracker.com/

https://www.shiptraffic.net/2001/04/hormuz-strait-ship-traffic.html

No ships going through yet. And one had a very interesting nugget of info on insurance:

Insurance withdrawal makes transit commercially unviable independent of physical conditions. Even if the security situation improves tomorrow, insurers take weeks to reinstate coverage. Ships cannot sail without P&I cover — ports won't accept them, banks won't finance cargo, charterers won't book them. Three weeks in, no insurer has shown willingness to reinstate. This is why the disruption will persist well beyond any resolution.

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  • [–] 13 points 4 months ago* (1 child)

    add on top of that:

    • time for Iran to administrate passage
    • time for each boat to enter/exit under security
    • reduced production rates due to full tanks or damaged infrastructure
    • time for countries to raise sovereign capital (selling bonds, gold and currency reserves) to meet price increases

    estimates are a reduction of 15-25% of global supply and 3-5 years to recover IF the straight is opened immediately and stays open. You can't print oil ppl. The price per barrel will need to be high enough to squash 15-25% of global demand. We could see $300-350+ per barrel.

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  • [–] 19 points 4 months ago

    We need to see oil prices high enough to squash 95-100% of global demand.

    Humans can adapt. We have renewable energy. We've had 6 years since covid to build a more resilient, sustainable infrastructure. We didn't. The world went right back to burning fossil fuels, and then some, and have only accelerated since.

    Maybe we need another global supply chain breakdown to force us to make up for lost time. Cause we needed to stop burning fossil fuels a decade ago.

    I bet we'll start seeing a lot more electric cars on the road. Too bad so many manufacturers shut down their production!

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    This is bullshit. There is a combination of excess and premium that any insurer would accept.

    Or the USA could provide/pay the insurance. Trump wants the strait open, he can backstop the insurance.

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  • [–] 75 points 4 months ago

    No wonder the Trump administration didn't want to release the ceasefire conditions.

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  • [–] 51 points 4 months ago

    The ceasefire announcement was market manipulation. Everything this administration does is rooted in making themselves and their friends richer.

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  • [–] 35 points 4 months ago (2 children)

    How are you so stupid you end up coming out being the bad guy against IRAN 🤦🏻

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  • [–] 21 points 4 months ago

    More reporting on this. Whole article is short and worth a read, but:

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/08/lebanon-attacks-israel-iran-ceasfire

    The U.S. official said the White House is not currently concerned that the situation in Lebanon would cause the ceasefire with Iran to collapse.

    Hezbollah said it had a right to respond to Israeli's attack.

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  • [–] 17 points 4 months ago

    I mean yeah blatantly not even a question.

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  • [–] 10 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (3 children)

    Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.

    As far as I'm aware, the ceasefire was to negotiate the terms to end the war, which was what the 10-point plan was a part of - nobody has agreed to anything yet beyond a cessation of hostilities pending the reopening of the straight. This is difficult to follow, because Iran's own reporting has been incredibly inconsistent about the contents of that plan and what they are saying the ceasefire actually entails, and to complicate it further the US/Israel have said barely anything about the negotiations or terms of the ceasefire (including as far as I am aware listing any terms beyond "reopening of the straight".)

    I can't find any reports of the US or Israel attacking Iran directly during this ceasefire, though - the only mention in the article of a direct slight against Iran is that a drone may have violated Iranian airspace - so... there's that? It sounds like the US still hasn't started blowing Iran up again, which is... god...

    IDK. To my armchair-geopoliticing-ass, this feels like Iran attempting to force the idea that the US/Israel agreed to their 10-point plan as terms of the ceasefire - something which seems extremely unlikely given that the terms (depending on the source) include "allowing Iranian nuclear enrichment" which seems like something that would be negotiated at a much later part of the process. Which is weird because they already have the whole "Israel still blowing up lebanon" thing to justify this.

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  • [–] [S] 12 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 child)

    can’t find any reports of the US or Israel attacking Iran directly during this ceasefire,

    I think it was Isreal stops attacking Lebanon

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  • [–] -2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 child)

    Yeah, sorry if that was unclear - I was just saying I don't think they've attacked Iran directly during the ceasefire, Israel attacking lebanon is separate to that point.

    edit: I have no idea why this is contentious?

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  • [+] 8 points 4 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] -1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

    I'm not sure why it wouldn't be the same war - I was remarking that the US and Israel appear to have stopped directly striking Iran, nothing beyond that. In no way am I saying that attacking lebanon isn't a part of the same war, or wasn't a violation of the ceasefire.

    the 10 points ceasefire WAS this one

    Where are you seeing this? I have found nowhere besides some reports (like this one) purporting to quote Iranian state media that claims all sides agreed to those terms - but even trump's announcement presented the '10-point plan' as the basis for future negotiations, not the terms of the ceasefire, which agrees with this statement from Iran:

    So I am very curious where you heard that this was the case.

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago

    Yeah, the reporting on all of this has been terrible. Iran released an inconsistent (different demands on the English terms) list of demands to end the war, but everyone is acting like the US accepted the list by agreeing to a temporary ceasefire.

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  • [–] 10 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    At this point, I have to become an accelerationist. The only way MAGA Americans (about 25% of voters) will wake up is if they are negatively personally affected in serious ways, and the only way to do that is serious war issues.

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  • [–] 6 points 4 months ago

    The U.S. and Iran also appear at loggerheads over how traffic through the Strait of Hormuz should be managed.

    Wow, CNBC, ya don't say

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  • [–] 5 points 4 months ago

    Consequences?

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    Trump is completely crazy.

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  • [–] 2 points 4 months ago

    If the guy in the header photo didn't at some point say "Suck it, Trebek", I'll be very disappointed.

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