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[–] 134 points 1 year ago (13 children)

As someone who works with integrating AI- it’s failing badly.

At best, it’s good for transcription- at least until it hallucinates and adds things to your medical record that don’t exist. Which it does and when the providers don’t check for errors - which few do regularly- congrats- you now have a medical record of whatever it hallucinated today.

And they are no better than answering machines for customer service. Sure, they can answer basic questions, but so can the automated phone systems.

They can’t consistently do anything more complex without making errors- and most people are frankly too dumb or lazy to properly verify outputs. And that’s why this bubble is so huge.

It is going to pop, messily.

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  • [–] 61 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    and most people are frankly too dumb or lazy to properly verify outputs.

    This is my main argument. I need to check the output for correctness anyways. Might as well do it in the first place then.

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  • [–] 33 points 1 year ago

    And they are no better than answering machines for customer service. Sure, they can answer basic questions, but so can the automated phone systems.

    This is what drives nuts the most about it. We had so many incredibly efficient, purpose-built tools using the same technologies (machine learning and neural networks) and we threw them away in favor of wildly inefficient, general-purpose LLMs that can’t do a single thing right. All because of marketing hype convincing billionaires they won’t need to pay people anymore.

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  • [–] 27 points 1 year ago

    This 1 million%.

    The fact that coding is a big corner of the use cases means that the tech sector is essentially high on their own supply.

    Summarizing and aggregating data alone isn't a substitute for the smoke and mirrors of confidence that is a consulting firm. It just makes the ones that can lean on branding able to charge more hours for the same output, and add "integrating AI" another bucket of vomit to fling.

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    [–] 73 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    SSSSIIIIIIIGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH.........

    Looks like I'll have to prepare for yet another once-in-a-lifetime economic collapse.

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  • [–] 62 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    If I was China, I would be thrilled to hear that the west are building data centres for LLMs, sucking power from the grid, and using all their attention and money on AI, rather than building better universities and industry. Just sit back and enjoy, while I can get ahead in these areas.

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  • [–] 36 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    They've been ahead for the past 2 decades. Government is robbing us blind because it only serves multinational corporations or foreign governments. It does not serve the people.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    They have a demographic pit in front of them which they themselves created with "1 child policy".

    Also CCP too doesn't exactly serve the people. It's a hierarchy of (possibly benevolent) bureaucrats.

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  • [–] 51 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    I feel like literally everybody knew it was a bubble when it started expanding and everyone just kept pumping into it.

    How many tech bubbles do we have to go through before we leave our lesson?

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  • [–] 43 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    what lesson? it's a ponzi scheme and whoever is the last holding the bag is the only one losing.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago

    Plus everyone else that pays taxes as they will have to continue to pay for unemployment insurance, food stamps, rent assistance, etc (not the CEOs and execs that caused it that's for sure).

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    And that's why it's being done. Everyone hopes that they make it out at just the right time to make millions while the greater fools who join too late are left holding the bag.

    Bubbles are great. For those who make it out in time. They suck fo everyone else including the taxpayer who might have to bail out companies and investors.

    Always following the doctrine of privatizing profits and socializing losses.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    I get that people who sell AI-services wants to promote it. That part is obvious.

    What I don't get is how gullible the rest of society at large is. Take the norwegian digitalization minister, who says that 80% of the public sector shall use AI. Whatever that means.

    Or building a gigantic fuckoff openai data centre, instead of new industry https://openai.com/nb-NO/index/introducing-stargate-norway/

    Jared Diamond had a great take on this in "Collapse". That there a countless examples of societies making awful decisions - because the decisionmakers are insulated from the consequences. On the contrary, they get short term gains.

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    [–] 30 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Everyone knows a bubble is a firm foundation to build upon. Now that Trump is back in office and all our American factories are busy cranking out domestic products I can finally be excited about the future again!

    I predict that in a year this bubble will be at least twice as big!

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  • [–] 23 points 1 year ago

    It's going to be great when the AI hype bubble crashes

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  • [–] 23 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    I didn't have the US becoming a banana republic on my bingo card tbf

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  • [–] 19 points 1 year ago

    When this puppy pops it's gonna splatter all of us with chunky bits.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    Open models are going to kick the stool out. Hopefully.

    GLM 4.5 is already #2 on lm arena, above Grok and ChatGPT, and runnable on homelab rigs, yet just 32B active (which is mad). Extrapolate that a bit, and it’s just a race to the zero-cost bottom. None of this is sustainable.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (7 children)

    I did not understand half of what you've written. But what do I need to get this running on my home PC?

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    I am referencing this: https://z.ai/blog/glm-4.5

    The full GLM? Basically a 3090 or 4090 and a budget EPYC CPU. Or maybe 2 GPUs on a threadripper system.

    GLM Air? Now this would work on a 16GB+ VRAM desktop, just slap in 96GB+ (maybe 64GB?) of fast RAM. Or the recent Framework desktop, or any mini PC/laptop with the 128GB Ryzen 395 config, or a 128GB+ Mac.

    You’d download the weights, quantize yourself if needed, and run them in ik_llama.cpp (which should get support imminently).

    https://github.com/ikawrakow/ik_llama.cpp/

    But these are…not lightweight models. If you don’t want a homelab, there are better ones that will fit on more typical hardware configs.

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  • [–] 17 points 1 year ago (20 children)

    You don't believe in the quantum block chain 3D printed AI cloud future mining asteroids for the private Mars colony (yet with no life extension)?

    Luddite.

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    [–] 17 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    So is it smart to short on the ai bubble ? 👉👈

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  • [–] 12 points 1 year ago

    The question is when, not if. But it's an expensive question to guess the "when" wrong. I believe the famous idiom is: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    Best of luck!

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  • [–] 13 points 1 year ago

    Ooowee, they are setting up the US for a major bust aren't they. I guess all the wealthy people will just have to buy up everything when it becomes dirt cheap. Sucks to have to own everything I guess.

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  • [–] 11 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Recognizing from history the possibilities of where this all might lead, the prospect of any serious economic downturn being met with a widespread push of mass automation—paired with a regime overwhelmingly friendly to the tech and business class, and executing a campaign of oppression and prosecution of precarious manual and skilled laborers—well, it should make us all sit up and pay attention.

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    [–] 10 points 1 year ago

    Not only the tech bubble is doing that.

    It's also the tech bubble ow and the pyramide scheme of the US housing sector will cause more financial issues as well and so is the whole creditcard system

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