There is no "us" or "them". If Microsoft will maintain its streak of spoiling everything they touch, everyone will switch to Linux sooner or later ๐
Now, for an actual sane take, unless we do the actual marketing work in order to gather interest from people, no, not even close to everyone will switch to Linux, specially considering Microsoft has literal millions of dollars to spend in marketing and will likely spin this in a way that non-techy people specially will buy in due to not knowing any choice.
This is a PSA begging people to contribute to their favorite distros not (only) with code but with marketing. Social media posts, videos, word of mouth recommendations, advocacy, events, etc. If your distro doesn't have a marketing team, create one, as most projects should already have done two decades ago. If your distro has one (like we do in Fedora), join it. There'll likely be something you can help with.
As it turns out, the rumours discussed by some outlets are based on the โIoT Enterprise Subscriptionโ of Windows 11, not Windows vNext. For those unaware, Windows 24H2 or Windows vNext is what Windows 12 is being called publicly.
As you can see in the above screenshots, the โsubscriptionโ code strings found in the preview builds are associated with a new Enterprise version of Windows 11 loT and have nothing to do with Windows 12 or future versions of the OS.
Iโm not saying to use it or to not switch to linux, but maybe this isnโt that much of a concern.
Iโd be more concerned about
the next version of Windows will be heavily integrated with AI and cloud capabilities.
Windows accounts for 12% of their profits, and I'm willing to bet that the consumer versions are a very small part of that. Most businesses are not buying OEM licenses. They are already using a subscription model for M365 which includes Windows licenses or a standard EA or SA agreement.
They learned after the Windows Phone that they don't need to win the client OS battle as long as they can get their other products on the devices. Since then Windows has really focused more on keeping you locked into the Microsoft ecosystem versus keeping locked into Windows itself. Hence why the upgrades have all been free where in the past you would have to repurchase each new edition of Windows.
Of course I could be completely wrong. They have done some bonkers stuff in the past.
It's very gradual and fun because it's new. A lot of you being lazy is also just your safety mechanism kicking in so you don't dive into every single urge all the time.
Once you dip your toe, you'll be at it for a long and good time.
I'm an early adopter of Linux (early as in 96-97) but I also run MacOS and Windows so I'm I tell you this from an unbiased point of view. Linux has never been easier to run. My daily driver is a ThinkPad running Pop!_OS Linux and I never have to think about it. I just installed and everything ran.
I don't game on my daily driver, I use MacOS for music. At this point Windows is relegated to Adobe Creative Suite, GeForce Now, and the occasional game I can't run on Linux or GeForce Now.
Just start by dual booting one of the "easy" distros and doing stuff that doesn't require Windows. Eventually you'll start spending more and more time on it out of comfort, then one day you may realise that you haven't needed your Windows partition in months, and can skip out on it entirely.
I suspect most people that only use their Windows computer for general stuff like web browsing, e-mail, multi media, office etc., which is probably the majority by far, will actually fall for the subscription scam.
Exactly, it's going to be Office 365+Windows in a single package kinda deal.
Probably with a mostly functioning Windows left if you stop paying, but no access to specific features or Office.
It's just a way to get people to pay a few bucks a month extra for the Office 365 package, which in the long term culminates to getting full bank plus then some for Windows, instead of a one time flat fee people will then use for as long as they keep the system.
Most people I know use the same system/laptop for 3-4 years, some even as long as 6-8 years if the thing doesn't break down.
The subscription will likely be setup so that you pay what you'd normally pay for a basic Windows Home (100-130ish) within the first 2 years (say $5 a month) and every year you use the same device longer than that, is just extra gravy for Microsoft.
But I doubt they'll drop the simple license. There are to many devices where a subscription wouldn't work and especially in this day and age, connecting the device to the Internet for any length of time is a big nono for the user/company.
My suspicion is that home installations will still be available at retail or OEM channels.
The subscription likely applies more to enterprise and possibly Windows 365. Enterprise licensing is a mess which might actually be simplified by a subscription pay-what-you-actually-use model.
Also itโs be cool to see windows 365 come to consumers as an alternative to a full PC. Would be able to standardize on home thin-client builds, or possibly add it as a feature to the Xbox Platform.
As much as I hate being bled to death by subscription services, Itโs probably still cheaper to subscribe to windows for a whole decade than use an apple computer outright for half that time.
The majority of Linux users arenโt in it because itโs free (as in free beer) anyway, and most broke gamers will likely continue to just pirate windows regardless.
However now that data usage and privacy and security is becoming a hot topic in the age of AI, I think once Microsoft and apple both start getting really brazen with their telemetry and embedded spyware, it will finally be the year of the Linux desktop! ;)
Wait. A few years ago, Windows decided they couldn't keep up with warez, so they allowed unactivated Windows for the first time. Now, they are going back to paid model, just to let the piracy shine up again!
In addition, this means, that if I bought a computer with Windows pre-installed, I couldn't operate it? This will render OEM Windows installation useless. So.. year of the Linux Desktop?
Was already looking to jump ship at the file explorers having ads as a "test" but boy howdy, do it Microsoft. This would push me to make the Linux switch outright.
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