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GDP Growth in Second Quarter Slows to 1.5%, No Evidence of AI Productivity Boom (cepr.net)
submitted 1 week ago* by to c/techtakes@awful.systems
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^a succint highly professional description of the US economy right now as it is monomaniacally leveraged into AI.

reference video

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=i-XhMFGH7vg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-XhMFGH7vg

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[–] 7 points 1 week ago (2 children)

here's some nerd who calculates that GenAI gives a senior dev a 15% productivity increase, and a junior 25%

https://bjorg.bjornroche.com/management/ai-productivity-gap/

HN correctly calls his numbers bullshit, especially because the time spend reviewing code is unchanged between pre- and post-AI:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49152222

Even if his numbers are correct, it essentially means that software companies are around 10% faster in delivering something, however that something might be even more bug-ridden and slow than before.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago*

    I think even if development at an instant is some % faster to start with, it writes the same functionality in more lines of code which will rapidly lead to a cumulative slowdown.

    Imagine you are traveling the oregon trail in a wagon and a devil offers you an extra horse but all of its manure has to go into the wagon. Initial speed up followed by a cumulative slowdown. If you keep accepting devil’s deals as your wagon keeps slowing down to a crawl, the progression is governed by a horseshit version of Tsiolkovsky’s equation.

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