[–] 5 points 1 week ago*

I think even if development at an instant is some % faster to start with, it writes the same functionality in more lines of code which will rapidly lead to a cumulative slowdown.

Imagine you are traveling the oregon trail in a wagon and a devil offers you an extra horse but all of its manure has to go into the wagon. Initial speed up followed by a cumulative slowdown. If you keep accepting devil’s deals as your wagon keeps slowing down to a crawl, the progression is governed by a horseshit version of Tsiolkovsky’s equation.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

    Well, the big issue is that there's only this much demand. How many web browsers is there genuine end user demand for, worldwide? Probably just 1. Several are made thanks to other demands by large corporations. How much value does a web browser provide, to billions of people who use it? What ever the number may be, it's orders of magnitude more than it costs to develop.

    Why is software observably hard for companies? When 90% of people are working on projects that are going nowhere, that creates a situation where competence is quite rare. Because in most projects it is objectively unnecessary (would make no difference). Where majority of software engineers never seen a successful project all the way from the start to the finish line.

    Then there's startups, these are (predominantly) mere vehicles for moving money from the coffers of large publicly traded corporations into pockets of VCs (who sell startups to said corporations). Whole world of pretend software engineering.

    Then there's large corporations, where CEOs want to get paid more and to be able to get paid more they need to add more layers to the hierarchy underneath them, which they need to fill somehow, and they can't fill on merit because they just don't have enough stuff happening that they could measure merit in.

    edit: basically the management always wants to do the equivalent of having hired a dozen heart surgeons to work on one heart and a "heart surgery architect" as well, the more layers the better because the more layers the higher is the pay their layer can get.

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  • [–] 13 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (6 children)

    As a software engineer, all of the free portion of the article is 100% correct about software engineering dysfunction.

    There's another reason why it is that way, though. A software engineer who is competent and productive and working under competent leadership making an useful product, would make a very large multiple of their salary in profits.

    That permits all sorts of utter dysfunction while still breaking even on the average. You can have incompetent leadership in 90% of projects, you can saddle your developers with any kind of bad practices, you can impose all sorts of productivity damaging nonsense and yet still break even.

    The dysfunction can be presented as relentless innovation and pursuit of new, uncertain opportunities, as a shrewd strategy.

    If you fall below break-even, the consequences will not be visible for many years. And up until it becomes impossible to recover, on the technical level it is extremely cheap to recover: it's easier to do nothing than to convert your OS's start menu to React. Tech companies don't fail because of tech.

    This also relates to using AI to write code. You already can have a human write your code and pay them $1 for $10 you would make from it - or $0 you would make if you fucked up. You want it to become $0.5 with AI coding tools? Then you're multiplying your probability of success by what's left after the probability that you get some unmaintainable slop . It's simply not worth it.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 weeks ago

    Yeah I have to admit I don't have the energy to gaze into that particular idiotic abyss. How do they even write that kind of fiction, in a world where AI companies routinely use critihype to obtain more investments? The least unhinged CEO: "we caught our AI trying to start a nuclear war, it's almost skynet, please give us another trillion dollars", the least unhinged investors: "shut up and take our money".

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  • [–] 5 points 2 weeks ago

    Yeah... I think the core point is, LLM's shit is generated artifacts, which need to be kept separate from sources. That you can't actually re-generate the same artifacts, is just a dingleberry on top of the shit pile.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

    I think there’s something to the compilers analogy, in the sense that if you used a C compiler through a chat interface with one liners to insert snippets into assembly without keeping the source code in source files as such, it would probably be slower than just writing in assembly yourself.

    That LLMs have a number of extremely undesirable properties as “compilers” (from nondeterminism to plagiarism) does not make the dumb ass chat interface any less fundamentally shit. It just makes them shit in other ways too.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 weeks ago

    I just love how they are adding the absolutely fucking most stupid exploits ever to everything, and then trying to whitewash it with all that bs about Fable or whatever the fuck.

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    There's a very long history of extremely effective labor saving tools in software.

    Writing in C rather than Assembly, especially for more than 1 platform.

    Standard libraries. Unix itself. More recently, developing games in Unity or Unreal instead of rolling your own engine.

    And what happened when any of these tools come on the scene is that there is a mad gold rush to develop products that weren't feasible before. Not layoffs, not "we don't need to hire junior developers any more".

    Rank and file vibe coders seem to perceive Claude Code (for some reason, mostly just Claude Code) as something akin to the advantage of using C rather than Assembly. They are legit excited to code new things they couldn't code before.

    Boiling the rivers to give them an occasional morale boost with "You are absolutely right!" is completely fucked up and I dread the day I'll have to deal with AI-contaminated codebases, but apart from that, they have something positive going for them, at least in this brief moment. They seem to be sincerely enthusiastic. I almost don't want to shit on their parade.

    The AI enthusiast bigwigs on the other hand, are firing people, closing projects, talking about not hiring juniors any more, and got the media to report on it as AI layoffs. They just gleefully go on about how being 30% more productive means they can fire a bunch of people.

    The standard answer is that they hate having employees. But they always hated having employees. And there were always labor saving technologies.

    So I have a thesis here, or a synthesis perhaps.

    The bigwigs who tout AI (while acknowledging that it needs humans for now) don't see AI as ultimately useful, in the way in which C compiler was useful. Even if its useful in some context, they still don't. They don't believe it can be useful. They see it as more powerfully useless. Each new version is meant to be a bit more like AM or (clearly AM-inspired, but more familiar) GLaDOS, that will get rid of all the employees once and for all.

     

    They train on sneer-problems now:

    Here’s the “ferry‑shuttle” strategy, exactly analogous to the classic two‑ferryman/many‑boats puzzle, but with planes and pilots

    And lo and behold, singularity - it can solve variants that no human can solve:

    https://chatgpt.com/share/68813f81-1e6c-8004-ab95-5bafc531a969

    Two ferrymen and three boats are on the left bank of a river. Each boat holds exactly one man. How can they get both men and all three boats to the right bank?

     

    I think this summarizes in one conversation what is so fucking irritating about this thing: I am supposed to believe that it wrote that code.

    No siree, no RAG, no trickery with training a model to transform the code while maintaining identical expression graph, it just goes from word-salading all over the place on a natural language task, to outputting 100 lines of coherent code.

    Although that does suggest a new dunk on computer touchers, of the AI enthusiast kind, you can point at that and say that coding clearly does not require any logical reasoning.

    (Also, as usual with AI it is not always that good. sometimes it fucks up the code, too).

     

    Tried my duck river crossing thing a few times recently, it usually solves it now, albeit with a bias to make unnecessary trips half of the time.

    Of course, anything new fails:

    There's 2 people and 1 boat on the left side of the river, and 3 boats on the right side of the river. Each boat can accommodate up to 6 people. How do they get all the boats to the left side of the river?

    Did they seriously change something just to deal with my duck puzzle? How odd.

    It's Google so it is not out of the question that they might do some analysis on the share links and referring pages, or even use their search engine to find discussions of a problem they're asked. I need to test that theory and simultaneously feed some garbage to their plagiarism machine...

    Sample of the new botshit:

    L->R: 2P take B_L. L{}, R{2P, 4B}. R->L: P1 takes B_R1. L{P1, B_R1}, R{P2, 3B}. R->L: P2 takes B_R2. L{2P, B_R1, B_R2}, R{2B}. L->R: P1 takes B_R1 back. L{P2, B_R2}, R{P1, 3B}. R->L: P1 takes B_R3. L{P1, P2, B_R2, B_R3}, R{2B}. L->R: P2 takes B_R2 back. L{P1, B_R3}, R{P2, 3B}.

    And again and again, like a buggy attempt at brute forcing the problem.

     

    So I signed up for a free month of their crap because I wanted to test if it solves novel variants of the river crossing puzzle.

    Like this one:

    You have a duck, a carrot, and a potato. You want to transport them across the river using a boat that can take yourself and up to 2 other items. If the duck is left unsupervised, it will run away.

    Unsurprisingly, it does not:

    https://g.co/gemini/share/a79dc80c5c6c

    https://g.co/gemini/share/59b024d0908b

    The only 2 new things seem to be that old variants are no longer novel, and that it is no longer limited to producing incorrect solutions - now it can also incorrectly claim that the solution is impossible.

    I think chain of thought / reasoning is a fundamentally dishonest technology. At the end of the day, just like older LLMs it requires that someone solved a similar problem (either online or perhaps in a problem solution pair they generated if they do that to augment the training data).

    But it outputs quasi reasoning to pretend that it is actually solving the problem live.

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