The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany surged to 26.3 in July, more than doubling from 10.5 in the previous month and significantly exceeding the market forecast of 17.5, according to data released by the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).

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[–] 12 points 2 days ago (1 child)

From which do these "praises" come from? I haven't heard of a single working class citizen, that likes what is being done.

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  • [–] 28 points 3 days ago (2 children)

    "Reforms" making the poor poorer and rich richer

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  • [+] [S] -8 points 3 days ago (2 children)

    Not really, social transfers have not decreased due to the reforms.

    The reforms are about a new German business model:

    1. increasing domestic investment with fundamental capital market reforms (like the new pension system and startup regulations)
    2. implementing the strategy and detailed plan to grow 6 industries (quantum, silicon products, fusion, biotech, battery, AI)
    3. increasing domestic demand (higher wages, longer hours worked, modernization of public sector)
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  • [–] 12 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    increasing domestic investment with fundamental capital market reforms (like the new pension system

    The new pension system could potentially yield returns in some decades.
    In the short term, it requires increasing the already high savings rate, which removes money from economic circulation and lowers consumption.
    How lower demand is supposed to entice companies to increase investment, is beyond me.

    strategy and detailed plan to grow 6 industries (quantum, silicon products, fusion, biotech, battery, AI)

    Ah yes, the perpetually 20 years away fusion industry, the “quantum” industry, AI aka the currently biggest bubble in the world, batteries where Varta just went insolvent and the economic minister is actively slowing down the growth of energy storage.
    I’d very much like to see these “detailed plans”.

    increasing domestic demand (higher wages, longer hours worked, modernization of public sector)

    Besides the higher savings rate already depressing demand, neither longer work hours nor modernization of the public sector would increase demand. If you believe in linear productivity, longer work hours could increase supply. But that wouldn’t help the economy because it’s already producing under capacity due to insufficient demand, in particular from abroad because exports were the business model of the last decades.
    And please let me know where the higher wages come from. The pension reform will increase social security contributions and lower net wages and I have heard nothing that would increase gross wages.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 3 days ago (1 child)

    From the German orthodox economic policy standpoint (only used to supply side interventions), all your points are obvious. I think that explains the pervasive negative bias among Germans about their economy. This is the first time ever Germany deals with a structurally reduced demand from abroad. So the policy response is new in that way.

    I'll try to respond to your points.

    1. capital market reforms are largely about how to increase firms and households investment inside Germany vs abroad, and how they invest it. Think of how Swedish pension funds vs German pension funds invest their money. Germany has a lot of savings (no need to increase them) that are badly invested and lossmaking (here you need the policy intervention).

    2. voilà! https://hightech-agenda-deutschland.de/

    3. more hours worked per employee at same activation rate, more disposable income, more household expenditure. More public sector modernization (more construction works for schools, bridges, roads, cables, fleet, IT systems..), more demand.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    Germany has a lot of savings (no need to increase them) that are badly invested and lossmaking

    That may be, but that is primarily a personal finance problem. The economic advantage of such pension funds is that it can provide dividends that can then be spent but that takes time. And these dividends must be created by some form of economic activity, which in international funds happens abroad, not domestically.
    The money for investment that capital markets can provide only helps companies that want to grow. Companies only need to grow if they see or expect demand that they can not fulfill with their current capacities. That is for the most part not the case for the current German economy.
    As I said before German companies have more capacity than demand. If demand does not pick up soon they will fire people they no longer need. The economy does not need more money in capital market right now, it needs more consumption.

    voilà! https://hightech-agenda-deutschland.de/

    Thanks for that but honestly, these are just fancy wish lists. Their detailed plan for fusion is:

    1. work out the necessary requirements for fusion
    2. create supply chains
    3. create the necessary requirements for fusion

    more hours worked per employee at same activation rate

    I must admit, I had to look up activation rate. It's not the most common metric in the manufaturing industry where all these endangered jobs are currently. But it seems to me that if workers are supposed to work more and the success metric does not change, then that means effectively less productivity. Surely, if anything, you'd want the opposite.

    more disposable income, more household expenditure

    Yes, both would be great. Now, where exactly are these supposed to come from? As mentioned, the pension reforms will reduce net income.

    More public sector modernization (more construction works for schools, bridges, roads, cables, fleet, IT systems…), more demand.

    Again, yes please, but where is it?
    Before the government was voted in they quickly negotiated a reform to the debt limit and set up a special fund that was supposed to be used for "additional investment" only. During the last year they moved all already approved investment from the regular household to this fund so they had more room for non-investment spending.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    It's not a personal finance problem. These investment decisions are not made by individuals mostly, but by funds and their regulators.

    There are many growing markets where capacity does not meet future demand (future is really key here). Those markets are likely the 6 industries in the new German industrial policy. The plans are not wishlists since they were jointly compiled by firms, research orgs and governments.

    About the domestic demand: well, both investment and additional investment in public sector works increase demand.

    About household incomes, these increase when you earn more money by working more.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    These investment decisions are not made by individuals mostly, but by funds

    I thought you were talking about the structure of German savings using not enough stocks or funds.
    What makes you think that a) existing funds are not investing correctly and b) that the new pension system would change that?

    many growing markets where capacity does not meet future demand (future is really key here)

    So, we have estimates that the car industry alone could lose 140k Jobs till 2035.
    How many of these will be employed in these 6 cool future industries by then? The battery industry could lose 3000 Varta employees pretty soon.

    additional investment in public sector works increase demand

    Yes it can, and I just explained how the government has misallocated additional investment funds to already planned investments.
    So where are these additional investments coming from?

    household incomes, these increase when you earn more money by working more

    a) That only hods true for people with hourly wages, not monthly salaries
    b) For hourly jobs, that means that the labour costs remain unchanged. If companies actually needed more labour at the same cost, they could just hire more people. We have over 6% unemployment with massive announced job cuts for the next years.
    c) I've already explained twice that there is currently not enough work to be done. Companies don't pay people to stand around and do nothing. Demand need to rise

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    Swedish pension funds invest a large share in global equities. German occupational pension institutions traditionally hold much larger shares of bonds and insurance products with capital guarantees. Since equities have historically outperformed bonds over long horizons, Swedish returns have been substantially higher.

    About the six future industries, taken together, probably more people will be employed there than in the car manufacturing industry. It also will make Germany more resilient against industry-specific shocks. (The battery part of the high-tech strategy is NOT about contemporary technology like Varta, I should have specified that. Totally different technology, just like quantum computers and current computers are not the same.)

    In total, public sector expenditure on works has risen, even if half of it has been spent on projects that were already planned before the debt break was loosened. You are right that the additionality share should increase to achieve more demand growth.

    About the wages, yes, that is partially correct. Many employees with monthly wages choose to work part-time and would earn more by working full-time. I'm surprised you would not immediately think of this group of employees. I hope we are trying to understand each other here.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    About the six future industries, taken together, probably more people will be employed there than in the car manufacturing industry.

    That sounds great if it turns out to be true. Cars alone can’t be the future. Do you have any reliable estimates for how many will be employed there and by when? The time window to get the soon unemployment auto workers new jobs is likely quite short.

    Many employees with monthly wages choose to work part-time and would earn more by working full-time. I'm surprised you would not immediately think of this group of employees.

    Probably because these people deliberately chose to work part time and could always have worked full time if they wanted and have nothing to do with current government reforms?

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    I have no accurate estimates about the future industries since it's too uncertain. But there are lots of guesstimates out there, that's what consultants are for after all...

    Higher premiums for overtime (only for fulltime employees) and holidays and lower income taxes can help change those deliberate choices. Also, maybe the SPD will end the subsidies for non-working spouses.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 day ago (1 child)

    But there are lots of guesstimates out there

    I wish, you would share some because as much as these techs are interesting fields of research, I have high doubts that they will provide significant employment in the near future.

    As for overtime, Germans are already working over a billion hours of often unpaid overtime per year. They don't need incentives to work longer, they need the work they already provide to be reimbursed first.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 1 day ago (1 child)

    Just ask chatgpt to find some papers with guesstimates. It's really good with that.

    Both paying for current unpaid overtime and more paid overtime would drive demand. It's all about raising household incomes!

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  • [–] 5 points 3 days ago* (1 child)

    Their detailed "plan" to grow 6 industries actually includes sabotaging battery production on the grid level for their fossil fuel industry buddies, sabotaging battery production in EVs by constantly spouting desinformation about the viability of ICEs via synthetic fuels (same,same...). And every talk about AI and biotech is just a pretense to press the topic of demolishing data protection to sell our medical data (sadly their electronic patient file project is sich a disaster that noone tries to buy the data when it's leak left and right constantly anyway) as well es every other private information. Fusion (alongside fission) is just another fairy tale to keep people doubting renewables, again just to keep the oil, gas and goal burning up.

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  • [–] [S] 0 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    Could you substantiate your fears with the actual plans? https://hightech-agenda-deutschland.de/

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  • [–] 3 points 2 days ago* (1 child)

    What "fears" are you talking about? I did not mention any fears of what might actually happen but simply recounted their real actions while you parrot the unsubstantiated lies they tell.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    Can you substantiate your scenarios with the actual plans? I provided the link to the plans...

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

    Which scenario? The reality.

    Merz party is the one that spend the last decade delaying grid extensions and upgrades by idiotic nimby discussions and the requirement to put them all underground. The moment there was another government that finally started the "planned" (read: we talk about it but never do) upbuild, they started a new discussion if over-ground installation wasn't cheaper and easier hoping to delay it even more.

    Merz party is the one staunchly refusing power pricing zones in Germany so their moronic Bavarian arm can keep blocking wind power without financial consequences. The new Ministry of Economy and Energy also managed to push for change in grid fees, so the northern states producing cheap energy have to pay extra.

    Speaking about that Ministry... There is twice the capacity in applications for battery storage than Germany would need in the next years but none of them get build because the grid providers (deeply entagled with or subsideries of fossil fuel heavy energy companies) delay the connections. The CEO of one of them that managed to delay the basic application process by literal years got rewarded with the job as Minister under Merz. The same obvious fossil fuel lobbyists is now also working on completely blocking battery storage and renewables (by allowing them only where the grid has overcapacities yet giving not the slightest incentive for the grid providers to improve the grid) while also having reworked the long-term energy plans with insane fantasy specs and requirements making sure that only fossil fuel power plant can guarantee energy security.

    (PS: The same plan basically kills all renewable upbuild, as they create a combination of "grid providers can throttle your production down if the grid can't handle it", "grid providers have no incentive to improve the grid" and "you get no money if the power you produce isn't used but are not allowed by law to build storage alongside it either". Try getting any investment into your project if the business model is solid yet a third party (which in this case is a corrupt fossil fuel loving government party) can block your business at a whim.)

    Merz party is also the one pushing on the EU level to reverse the policies on ICEs while loudly hallucinating about eFuels as a valid alternative (they do the same for heating, too). It's basically a constant "Just keep using fossil fuels. There will be green alternatives in a few years that make any changes on your side unneccessary (because we don't understand thermodynamics *wink wink*)" desinformation campaign 24/7.

    Also ask about the industry that spend billions (plus subsidies from the EU and the former German government) on transforming their energy intensive business models (like steel production for example) to climate-neutral production... All there new shiny facilities (using hydrogen and electricity instead of coal and gas) come only in the next 1-3 years while right now German conservatives from Merz party are pushing to weaken already existing climate-protection laws and CO₂ pricing to kill those business models.

    Should we talk about Merz party's insane surveilance dreams (lobbied mostly by US AI companies) and love of Palantir to put their ideas about AI in the correct context?

    What's else... Oh, yeah: The ePA (electronic patient file) is standard for everyone with public health insurance since 2025 unless you explicitly objected. It's a totally ridiculous bullshit concept, insecure like shit (with a multitude of leaks and demonstrated weaknesses you can exploit to access other people's data) because the whole concept is build for commercialising health data, including laughable pseudonymous instead of proper anonymous data sharing.

    Again: None of those are plans or scenarios. Those are facts and things that already happened.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    I was talking about the high-tech agenda plans. We seem to be talking about different things

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  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (1 child)

    Oh, I understand the difference between what we talk about. My problem is that I don't believe any of their plans, when their actions are contrary to those plans.

    They might say that they have battery tech plans, but they actually sabotage the main sectors using large modern batteries (transport and power grid). They might say they have fusion plans, but they don't actually increase any spending in research and just use it as an empty talking point (for example when painting "renewables as just an interim solution" - paraphrasing Merz). They might talk a lot about chip design and AI and how to build up a skilled work force, but don't actually invest into education (quite the contrary: the educational sector is ailing in every conceivable aspect).

    I simple know their story telling quite well by now. They try to sell the same future fairy tales for decades: climate neutral renewable energy soon - while actually subsidising coal and limiting grid upkeep/-build to keep fossil fuels relevant no matter how much clean, cheap energy is actually produced; digitalisation - actually just a buzz word to justify more cost cutting in already overworked sectors and deregulation for their industry buddies (sometimes just defacto deregulation by pushing supervisors to the breaking point); less bureaucracy - again just cost cutting to break the system, then cry that obviously even more cuts are needed; and my recent favorite: a massive amount of debt to invest in infrastructure and economy - to then waste it all on other stuff and manage to actually invest even less than in former years.

    Yes, they have a published high-tech agenda. It's a lie because lying is all they do.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    The index is between -100 and +100. Average value is 24.8.

    https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZEW-Index

    Nobody can tell how knowlegeable the experts are.

    I think people should be worried more because the politicians haven't come up with something innovative themselves.

    Some changes in pension laws don't create a source for innovation. It makes people work longer and thus only postpones doom by 5 years.

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  • [–] [S] -3 points 3 days ago (2 children)

    What about the gov's detailed plan to grow 6 industries? That kind of industrial policy is innovative policy in Germany. The US and China have been doing it for decades so it's not new in an absolute way.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    This @plyth@feddit.org is a troll, making consistently anti-European, but pro-China, pro-Russia- comments in an often weirdly pseudo-intellectual manner.

    Their only aim apparently is to make Europe and the West in general look bad imo.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 days ago

    Am I just weird or also wrong?

    Do you think Europe lacks enthusiasm so that my comments kill the mood and we fall behind? I think we live in a propaganda bubble and we do the wrong things which makes us fall behind.

    If the CDU hadn't killed solar cell production and had invested in batteries, we could already be energy independent. The same people keep making politics. I don't think we can afford to close our eyes and believe that now everything is in good hands.

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  • [–] 0 points 3 days ago

    That kind of industrial policy is innovative policy in Germany. The US and China have been doing it for decades so it’s not new in an absolute way.

    Which part is innovative? Subsidies, grants, credits, guarantees and basic research already exist.

    The GDR tried to copy western chip technology and failed. The GDR invested two digit percentages of their budget to catch up, knowing the importance. But copying technology creates different skills than being innovative.

    We now want to do that not only with one technology but 6.

    Why do we try to compete in markets with massive competition that sound like the future instead of analysing which markets are important but don't have competition, like China does with rare earth matrials?

    Something has to be done, but the timeline has to be decades to create a moat. Everything else can be copied.

    AI is not a source for profits but a money dump because it is essentially a war.

    China directly reacted to the AI threat. In the US, Musk created OpenAI when Google initially came close and Facebook followed and Microsoft tried, too. It shows that there are people who look ahead which don't exist in Europe.

    To call for AI when it is readily available and people use it doesn't show the same foresight. The people who distribute the resources, are they going to choose wisely?

    Microsoft has all the money and they are behind. Germany won't invest these amounts of money. I think we will get a backup AI to avoid US domination but I doubt that we can create a competitive AI industry.

    The other technologies also sound good but we have ignored them until now. If they weren't promising till last week why should they be the foundation for our industries today?

    I have not enough knowledge about quantum technologies.

    Fusion is a magnet technology problem. Others have invested in research, we have spent money on engineering.

    Silicon products is a tough market. DRAM producers colluded before the AI boom to make money.

    Biotech can be everything but I remember reading about many unemployed scientists.

    Batteries will be difficult when Varta is folding right now for the second time.

    Politics should stay out of the economy. Instead they should improve the circumstances. Where is the highspeed rail to make meetings easy? How long until everybody has fiber to make them less necessary? How about available housing so that it is easy for people to move? How about not making laws that prevent investments into battery storage to keep energy prices high? How about child care so that parents don't have to regularly stay home?

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