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[–] 203 points 10 months ago (6 children)

It's objectively a bad thing when a country's entire economy is being propped up by seven companies and the vast majority of consumer spending is concentrated in the top 1%.

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  • [–] 84 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Specially when those companies are valued in TRILLIONS. Nothing is worth trillions, somehow these surreal numbers have been accepted as hard fact.

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  • [–] 27 points 10 months ago

    Evaluations of everything is crazy. Net worth of celebrities with make up lines in particular is crazy. Look how many celebs are worth a billion dollars. To be worth that much, they should be selling at least $50 millions a year of product with no prediction of winding down.

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  • [–] 45 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    The most optimistic take I've seen: AI is a drain on the entire economy that sucks up all investment and this is why the rest of the economy is basically in a recession. Once the bubble pops, investors will flood back into the real economy and correct the problem.

    I'm not optimistic.

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  • [–] 13 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Can the AI bubble please suck up all the housing investment?

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  • [–] 23 points 10 months ago

    The way to make a big dent in that is to tax unused housing, with peogressivwly increasing amounts as they continue unoccupied. And limit or outright deny ownership by companies and investment firms.

    We have more than enough housing for everyone, but a large portion of it sits unused. In many cases only because no one will/can pay what some of these companies are demanding monthly for them.

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    [–] 96 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    Looks more like the dot com bubble to me.

    Is it just me, or are the bubbles coming closer together these days?

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  • [–] 53 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    Yes! The problem is that we won't accept the full correction that is actually required. We print money, we buy securities, we find ways to prop to reduce the pain but we end up shifting the weakness to other areas of the economy.

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  • [–] 26 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    The amounts going around now are getting too big for a government to cover. Instead of too big to fail, they're now too big to bail.

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  • [–] 15 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Nonsense. We can print an unlimited amount of dollars.

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    [–] 61 points 10 months ago (16 children)

    This doesn't really tell me anything, I'd have to compare it with other charts. E.g. what does the chart for agriculture look like? Airplane manufacturing? Internet in early 2000s?

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    [–] 56 points 10 months ago (6 children)

    NVIDIA really out here selling shovels in the gold Rush

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    [–] 56 points 10 months ago (27 children)

    If Lemmy is supposed to be the place where the most tech savvy people in the interest congregate, and everyone in the comments is unsatisfied with AI then we really do have a problem. These companies have all reached a point where they no longer listen to their most informed customer base but instead take 100% of direction from investors who don't even know what they want except a line going up.

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  • [–] 15 points 10 months ago (4 children)

    Eh. Lemmy has a lot of ignorance surrounding technology and science compared to other sites. Hacker News is what you're looking for if you want somewhere that is full of the most tech savvy people on the Internet, and most of them are extremely pro AI (with some weird AI cultishness alongside). Myself I think AI is a bubble but there is a lot of promise in the underlying technology once you take away the hype, just like the .com bubble at the turn of the century.

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    [–] 48 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    People need housing, no one needs this AI crap. Even in boring engineering jobs using tools that solved problems decades ago, we are getting AI shoveled in left and right in places no one needs or wants it. And calling old features "AI" is also another problem.

    And now these stupid "barking bears attacking fat sleeping people" videos are everywhere, and people seem to think they're real.

    We should focus on natural intelligence first, that is to say each other, and education...

    Oh and the headline should read "Every day", "everyday" is an adjective, like an everyday occurence.

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    [–] 36 points 10 months ago*

    But where is Palantir on this? Because they're discernibly connected to several of these orgs, and that displays the character of what this is actually about.

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  • [–] 36 points 10 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 36 points 10 months ago (9 children)

    The GDP issue is not because of the AI bubble, it's because of tariffs and the complete destruction of US soft power abroad

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  • [–] 18 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    And I would almost bet the crash will be about the time the Dems take power, just so the Republicans can whine about the situation they created and blame the Democrats for it.

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    [+] 34 points 10 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (3 children)
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    [–] 31 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    doesn't look a goddamn thing like the housing bubble

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    [–] 27 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (19 children)

    So how dangerous is that really? I assume one day we’ll finally see investors saying, “Nah, that’s a bubble. I’m not gonna see any returns from those companies - I’m selling.” Then stock prices will fall, and some investors will lose money by selling for less than they bought. After that, AI unicorns will start to lose funding and close their businesses, laying off people.

    But will I - a person who does not work in the AI industry and has not invested in AI companies - be affected by this?

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  • [–] 26 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 child)

    I don't know the answer, but during 2008 onwards (seems like the economy didn't fully recover until the end of Obama's presidency), every industry slowed down. Was hard for me to get a fast food job or consistent minimum wage assembly line work through temp agencies. Things can go into vicious positive feedback loops during downturns (investors afraid to invest due to bad economic outlook -> factories and such don't get built or expanded -> unemployment rises -> people spend less -> companies start laying off -> economic outlook worsens -> investors selling and moving to "safer' assets -> ...). The entire banking system pretty much imploded during 2008; I don't know how much exposure banks have to AI (commercial real estate is another thing to worry about though). With any luck the AI crash would be more like the dot-com crash, which mostly just hurt one industry (but I remember my father talking about factory layoffs during that too).

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  • [–] 16 points 10 months ago (19 children)

    One thing people didn't mention is that I'm pretty sure the top 10% of Americans by income make up 50% of consumption because of the heavily K shaped revovery that has happened. These Americans have a large percentage of their wealth in stocks, and if the stock market crashes, they will feel less wealthy and less willing to spend, decreasing their spending, tanking the US economy.

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    [–] 25 points 10 months ago (9 children)

    Hold up everyone. It's not a bubble.

    "So it is true that valuations are high but, in our view, generally not at levels that are as high as are typically seen at the height of a financial bubble," said Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer.

    He's from GOLDMAN SACHS LOLOLOLO I THINK THEY WOULD RECOGNIZE A BUBBLE LOL ah fuck me our economy is gonna splode

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    [–] 23 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    It'll crash when there isn't enough electric power to fulfill all those contractual obligations.

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  • [–] 22 points 10 months ago (24 children)

    But what will be left after it bursts? At least in cause of the housing bubble - the houses existed physically - what will be after the AI crash? Lots of spare gear sold for cheap?

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  • [–] 28 points 10 months ago (4 children)

    The s&p 500 tanks a ton and banks call on loans from these AI hyped companies using the price of the stocks as collateral (previously expected to rise). Credit crunch and now companies tighten the belts even further so higher unemployment again. Federal funds rate gets slashed and those that can manage steady good work during the recovery years will be fine. Everyone else will be struggle busing as usual

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  • [–] 12 points 10 months ago* (1 child)

    yes, We can't prevent the bubble burst. We can hope it happens sooner rather than later but the bubble is baked in. So what companies and individuals can to is basically buy up their detritus at bargain prices. And then use them to make better, more solid companies that do not require $3T investment while showing no fucking profit.

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    [–] 19 points 10 months ago (9 children)

    I'll just wait for the movies to come out ten years later telling us exactly how they all lost our money again.

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    [–] 15 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    this looks nothing like a cdo

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    [–] 14 points 10 months ago

    They do look like bubbles.

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  • [–] 14 points 10 months ago (5 children)

    From the entry for "zaibatsu" on Wikipedia:

    Under the Allied occupation after the surrender of Japan, a partially successful attempt was made to dissolve the zaibatsu. Many of the economic advisors accompanying the SCAP administration had experience with the New Deal and were highly suspicious of monopolies and restrictive business practices, which they felt to be both inefficient, and to be a form of corporatocracy (and thus inherently anti-democratic).

    The only difference? The zaibatsu actually diversified their operations.

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    [–] 13 points 10 months ago
    [–] 13 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    There is definitely a bubble. But also what Nvidia is doing is smart. They have boatloads of cash. They are investing that cash in the companies that are using their products to create money making services. If one of them can create a killer app or viable service this will create demand for their products and they will have an ownership stake in it. Is this guaranteed or even likely? Probably not. We have reached the point where we were in 1996 where the chairman of the fed came out and said we are in a period of "irrational exuberance." That bubble took four more years to pop. This one may end quicker, but it is impossible to tell when it will end or what will come out of it from where we sit today.

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