I mean... It's hard to really find solid numbers because Bethesda hasn't published them, but we know that Prey's opening week of sales was 60% less than Dishonored 2's was. All the estimates and discussion i can find on the Internet either concludes that the game lost money or, at best, broke about even.

It got great critical reviews. People who identify as "gamers" seemed to love it. But it gets compared to Bioshock a lot- Bioshock Infinite came out 4 years earlier and the market was saturated with similar games by the time Prey came out.

So I don't think it's unreasonable for management to want to move in a different direction. That direction ended up being a terrible one with Redfall, but i can't automatically assume that the studio would have been any better off making another game like Prey.

You can find every example you could look for in history. Studios who changed direction successfully, like Insomniac going from FPS to 3D platformer. Gamefreak went from platformers like Pulseman to making JRPG's and ended up making the most successful media franchise in history, while all of their later attempts to do anything else have failed miserably.

And it's not as if it would have made sense to have Arkane make Weird West. You can't just slash a AAA studio down to an indie overnight.