here's an i2p magnet link to the irs chain analysis talk from last year:
magnet:?xt=urn:btih:d371d4e4cb9a3760ef79e94fde0b8edf22062e49&tr=http://tracker2.postman.i2p/announce.php&dn=chainalysis-monero-presentation-to-irs-august-2023.av1.webm
gives some insight into how they do it with their analysis tool. i'll let you draw your own conclusions based on your own risk profile, but if you're a target and they have enough confidence with the tool, they could grow a profile and subpoena the target exchange for kyc.