▲ 631 ▼ Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat (www.bloomberg.com) submitted 2 years ago by return2ozma@lemmy.world to c/news@lemmy.world 96 comments fedilink hide all child comments Paywall removed: https://archive.is/xWD8k
[–] ralphio@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago (2 children) Overall the polls have been encouraging for her, but that MI one look really wrong. 538 has her about down a point on average. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/ permalink fedilink source hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] BreadstickNinja@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago 538 shows the same result, Kamala +11, for the specific Morning Consult poll cited in the chart. But you are correct that this poll is an outlier compared to other polls, and we probably need more data and for the race to settle a bit before we have a sense of the actual margin. I'm hesitant to put too much stock in any numbers a single week into her candidacy. It also bears repeating that no poll matters unless people vote. permalink fedilink source parent [–] vanontom@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago (1 child) I didn't realize Nate Silver left 538 (he's over at Silver Bulletin now.) Not sure how credible they are anymore, after Disney/ABC gutted the team, and he left with the magic sauce algorithms. They were the one place I semi-trusted for polling, most accurate I've come across (since 2012 or so). permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] ralphio@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago Yeah, I'm not sure how reliable their final predicitons will be, but they're definitely still useful for compiling polls, and their pollster ratings are useful since they only have to look at how close polls came to being correct after the actual vote. That's primarily what I use them for. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] BreadstickNinja@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago 538 shows the same result, Kamala +11, for the specific Morning Consult poll cited in the chart. But you are correct that this poll is an outlier compared to other polls, and we probably need more data and for the race to settle a bit before we have a sense of the actual margin. I'm hesitant to put too much stock in any numbers a single week into her candidacy. It also bears repeating that no poll matters unless people vote. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] vanontom@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago (1 child) I didn't realize Nate Silver left 538 (he's over at Silver Bulletin now.) Not sure how credible they are anymore, after Disney/ABC gutted the team, and he left with the magic sauce algorithms. They were the one place I semi-trusted for polling, most accurate I've come across (since 2012 or so). permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] ralphio@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago Yeah, I'm not sure how reliable their final predicitons will be, but they're definitely still useful for compiling polls, and their pollster ratings are useful since they only have to look at how close polls came to being correct after the actual vote. That's primarily what I use them for. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] ralphio@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago Yeah, I'm not sure how reliable their final predicitons will be, but they're definitely still useful for compiling polls, and their pollster ratings are useful since they only have to look at how close polls came to being correct after the actual vote. That's primarily what I use them for. permalink fedilink source parent