▲ 436 ▼ Zelensky says allies asked him to scale back attacks on Russian energy (www.bbc.com) submitted 4 months ago by avidamoeba@lemmy.ca to c/world@lemmy.world 38 comments fedilink hide all child comments
[–] Quacksalber@sh.itjust.works 159 points 4 months ago (1 child) I call myself an ally of Ukraine. Hit them more! Make them hurt! permalink fedilink source hideshow 2 child comments replies: [+] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca [S] -51 points 4 months ago* (5 children) If gulf oil supply was still flowing, that would've probably made a positive difference. But with gulf oil supply dried up, if he doesn't win the war by blowing it all up, where's the fuel gonna come from for fueling his army, the energy that the European economy needs to supports the war materially and financially? Or the energy fueling China's production of the electronics and motors Ukraine uses for drone producrion. If Russian oil production is knocked offline while the gulf's is dead, we're entering revolutionary economic conditions and I think the support for Ukraine under such conditions would evaporate. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 10 child comments replies: [–] Addv4@lemmy.world 44 points 4 months ago (1 child) Or alternatively, if he doesn't knock out Russian oil quickly, the US might say, how about we end this war on your behalf as long as you keep the oil flowing. Russia is generally losing currently, but if they get enough funds from oil Ukraine could lose the war (or more likely keep it going much longer). permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [+] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca [S] -11 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 child) If they can force the question like that to the US, perhaps. But I don't think they can do that. They would have already done so if they could instead of complain about being asked not to. They don't seem ideologically predisposed to play hardball like Iran is. Or pehaps their material position to knock Russia's oil prod is not as strong. Which is the other concern. If they knock a chunk of it offline, enough to trigger regime changes across Europe (through oilprice-triggered recession/depression), but not enough to win the war, then they'd be absolutely fucked and will def lose the war. E: In fact now that the gulf is closed, if Zelensky can plausibly threaten he can knock a lot of Russian oil prod offline, that could create leverage he did not have while the gulf was open. He could do even more than threaten the US. He could say to the EU: "Hey pussies, give me all the weapons or I bring the AfD, Le Pen and Farage in power. Actually fuck that, give me air cover too." permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Addv4@lemmy.world 13 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) Not particularly, that would absolutely backfire if Zelensky tried that. Most of why the war hasn't spiralled seems to be that he hasn't broken any rules of combat, and has decent relationships with most of the countries of the EU. In fact, that would probably give Trump a premise to help Russia, something he has clearly been looking for for a while. And even then, I think the connotation between Trump and Europe's Far right is enough to make them generally unpopular, given the far right caused the gas/oil shortages in the first place, so I doubt AfD, Le Pen, or Farage would gain enough leverage to parley that into power. Ultimately, I think Ukraine needs to quickly shut down Russian oil production, as if they don't Russia gets a foothold that makes their war last longer. It won't be particularly popular in a lot of the EU (at least in the short term), but it's better than giving Russia the means to continue their bullshit. permalink fedilink source parent [–] Quacksalber@sh.itjust.works 32 points 4 months ago (1 child) Or, and hear me out, Trump could stop his temper tantrum he calls a war and then the Strait of Hormuz would be unblocked. Don't make Ukraine responsible for everyone else's mistakes. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Kondeeka@lemmy.world 1 point 4 months ago I believe he's calling it a special military combat operation permalink fedilink source parent [–] wuffah@lemmy.world 32 points 4 months ago Russia can stop the attacks on their energy infrastructure at any time by withdrawing from Ukraine. permalink fedilink source parent [–] REDACTED@infosec.pub 28 points 4 months ago (2 children) So you're saying there are two countries in Europe at war, and the defender can't strike back in this war because of another war in middle east that the US started? Trump only needs to lift Russian oil sanctions at this point to make it clear they're doing everything to save Russia and doom allies. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] CheeseNoodle@lemmy.world 11 points 4 months ago Didn't he already partially do that? He also appears to be letting Russia (and no one else) through the blockade to sell oil to Cuba. permalink fedilink source parent [–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 1 point 4 months ago Trump's stubby little thumb has been on the Russian side of the scales since he got into office. permalink fedilink source parent [–] Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works 18 points 4 months ago If russia doesn't want to have their stuff blown up, they can stop at any time by not occupying Ukraine anymore. It's literally their choice. permalink fedilink source parent
[+] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca [S] -51 points 4 months ago* (5 children) If gulf oil supply was still flowing, that would've probably made a positive difference. But with gulf oil supply dried up, if he doesn't win the war by blowing it all up, where's the fuel gonna come from for fueling his army, the energy that the European economy needs to supports the war materially and financially? Or the energy fueling China's production of the electronics and motors Ukraine uses for drone producrion. If Russian oil production is knocked offline while the gulf's is dead, we're entering revolutionary economic conditions and I think the support for Ukraine under such conditions would evaporate. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 10 child comments replies: [–] Addv4@lemmy.world 44 points 4 months ago (1 child) Or alternatively, if he doesn't knock out Russian oil quickly, the US might say, how about we end this war on your behalf as long as you keep the oil flowing. Russia is generally losing currently, but if they get enough funds from oil Ukraine could lose the war (or more likely keep it going much longer). permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [+] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca [S] -11 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 child) If they can force the question like that to the US, perhaps. But I don't think they can do that. They would have already done so if they could instead of complain about being asked not to. They don't seem ideologically predisposed to play hardball like Iran is. Or pehaps their material position to knock Russia's oil prod is not as strong. Which is the other concern. If they knock a chunk of it offline, enough to trigger regime changes across Europe (through oilprice-triggered recession/depression), but not enough to win the war, then they'd be absolutely fucked and will def lose the war. E: In fact now that the gulf is closed, if Zelensky can plausibly threaten he can knock a lot of Russian oil prod offline, that could create leverage he did not have while the gulf was open. He could do even more than threaten the US. He could say to the EU: "Hey pussies, give me all the weapons or I bring the AfD, Le Pen and Farage in power. Actually fuck that, give me air cover too." permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Addv4@lemmy.world 13 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) Not particularly, that would absolutely backfire if Zelensky tried that. Most of why the war hasn't spiralled seems to be that he hasn't broken any rules of combat, and has decent relationships with most of the countries of the EU. In fact, that would probably give Trump a premise to help Russia, something he has clearly been looking for for a while. And even then, I think the connotation between Trump and Europe's Far right is enough to make them generally unpopular, given the far right caused the gas/oil shortages in the first place, so I doubt AfD, Le Pen, or Farage would gain enough leverage to parley that into power. Ultimately, I think Ukraine needs to quickly shut down Russian oil production, as if they don't Russia gets a foothold that makes their war last longer. It won't be particularly popular in a lot of the EU (at least in the short term), but it's better than giving Russia the means to continue their bullshit. permalink fedilink source parent [–] Quacksalber@sh.itjust.works 32 points 4 months ago (1 child) Or, and hear me out, Trump could stop his temper tantrum he calls a war and then the Strait of Hormuz would be unblocked. Don't make Ukraine responsible for everyone else's mistakes. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Kondeeka@lemmy.world 1 point 4 months ago I believe he's calling it a special military combat operation permalink fedilink source parent [–] wuffah@lemmy.world 32 points 4 months ago Russia can stop the attacks on their energy infrastructure at any time by withdrawing from Ukraine. permalink fedilink source parent [–] REDACTED@infosec.pub 28 points 4 months ago (2 children) So you're saying there are two countries in Europe at war, and the defender can't strike back in this war because of another war in middle east that the US started? Trump only needs to lift Russian oil sanctions at this point to make it clear they're doing everything to save Russia and doom allies. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] CheeseNoodle@lemmy.world 11 points 4 months ago Didn't he already partially do that? He also appears to be letting Russia (and no one else) through the blockade to sell oil to Cuba. permalink fedilink source parent [–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 1 point 4 months ago Trump's stubby little thumb has been on the Russian side of the scales since he got into office. permalink fedilink source parent [–] Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works 18 points 4 months ago If russia doesn't want to have their stuff blown up, they can stop at any time by not occupying Ukraine anymore. It's literally their choice. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Addv4@lemmy.world 44 points 4 months ago (1 child) Or alternatively, if he doesn't knock out Russian oil quickly, the US might say, how about we end this war on your behalf as long as you keep the oil flowing. Russia is generally losing currently, but if they get enough funds from oil Ukraine could lose the war (or more likely keep it going much longer). permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [+] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca [S] -11 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 child) If they can force the question like that to the US, perhaps. But I don't think they can do that. They would have already done so if they could instead of complain about being asked not to. They don't seem ideologically predisposed to play hardball like Iran is. Or pehaps their material position to knock Russia's oil prod is not as strong. Which is the other concern. If they knock a chunk of it offline, enough to trigger regime changes across Europe (through oilprice-triggered recession/depression), but not enough to win the war, then they'd be absolutely fucked and will def lose the war. E: In fact now that the gulf is closed, if Zelensky can plausibly threaten he can knock a lot of Russian oil prod offline, that could create leverage he did not have while the gulf was open. He could do even more than threaten the US. He could say to the EU: "Hey pussies, give me all the weapons or I bring the AfD, Le Pen and Farage in power. Actually fuck that, give me air cover too." permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Addv4@lemmy.world 13 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) Not particularly, that would absolutely backfire if Zelensky tried that. Most of why the war hasn't spiralled seems to be that he hasn't broken any rules of combat, and has decent relationships with most of the countries of the EU. In fact, that would probably give Trump a premise to help Russia, something he has clearly been looking for for a while. And even then, I think the connotation between Trump and Europe's Far right is enough to make them generally unpopular, given the far right caused the gas/oil shortages in the first place, so I doubt AfD, Le Pen, or Farage would gain enough leverage to parley that into power. Ultimately, I think Ukraine needs to quickly shut down Russian oil production, as if they don't Russia gets a foothold that makes their war last longer. It won't be particularly popular in a lot of the EU (at least in the short term), but it's better than giving Russia the means to continue their bullshit. permalink fedilink source parent
[+] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca [S] -11 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 child) If they can force the question like that to the US, perhaps. But I don't think they can do that. They would have already done so if they could instead of complain about being asked not to. They don't seem ideologically predisposed to play hardball like Iran is. Or pehaps their material position to knock Russia's oil prod is not as strong. Which is the other concern. If they knock a chunk of it offline, enough to trigger regime changes across Europe (through oilprice-triggered recession/depression), but not enough to win the war, then they'd be absolutely fucked and will def lose the war. E: In fact now that the gulf is closed, if Zelensky can plausibly threaten he can knock a lot of Russian oil prod offline, that could create leverage he did not have while the gulf was open. He could do even more than threaten the US. He could say to the EU: "Hey pussies, give me all the weapons or I bring the AfD, Le Pen and Farage in power. Actually fuck that, give me air cover too." permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Addv4@lemmy.world 13 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) Not particularly, that would absolutely backfire if Zelensky tried that. Most of why the war hasn't spiralled seems to be that he hasn't broken any rules of combat, and has decent relationships with most of the countries of the EU. In fact, that would probably give Trump a premise to help Russia, something he has clearly been looking for for a while. And even then, I think the connotation between Trump and Europe's Far right is enough to make them generally unpopular, given the far right caused the gas/oil shortages in the first place, so I doubt AfD, Le Pen, or Farage would gain enough leverage to parley that into power. Ultimately, I think Ukraine needs to quickly shut down Russian oil production, as if they don't Russia gets a foothold that makes their war last longer. It won't be particularly popular in a lot of the EU (at least in the short term), but it's better than giving Russia the means to continue their bullshit. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Addv4@lemmy.world 13 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) Not particularly, that would absolutely backfire if Zelensky tried that. Most of why the war hasn't spiralled seems to be that he hasn't broken any rules of combat, and has decent relationships with most of the countries of the EU. In fact, that would probably give Trump a premise to help Russia, something he has clearly been looking for for a while. And even then, I think the connotation between Trump and Europe's Far right is enough to make them generally unpopular, given the far right caused the gas/oil shortages in the first place, so I doubt AfD, Le Pen, or Farage would gain enough leverage to parley that into power. Ultimately, I think Ukraine needs to quickly shut down Russian oil production, as if they don't Russia gets a foothold that makes their war last longer. It won't be particularly popular in a lot of the EU (at least in the short term), but it's better than giving Russia the means to continue their bullshit. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Quacksalber@sh.itjust.works 32 points 4 months ago (1 child) Or, and hear me out, Trump could stop his temper tantrum he calls a war and then the Strait of Hormuz would be unblocked. Don't make Ukraine responsible for everyone else's mistakes. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Kondeeka@lemmy.world 1 point 4 months ago I believe he's calling it a special military combat operation permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Kondeeka@lemmy.world 1 point 4 months ago I believe he's calling it a special military combat operation permalink fedilink source parent
[–] wuffah@lemmy.world 32 points 4 months ago Russia can stop the attacks on their energy infrastructure at any time by withdrawing from Ukraine. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] REDACTED@infosec.pub 28 points 4 months ago (2 children) So you're saying there are two countries in Europe at war, and the defender can't strike back in this war because of another war in middle east that the US started? Trump only needs to lift Russian oil sanctions at this point to make it clear they're doing everything to save Russia and doom allies. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] CheeseNoodle@lemmy.world 11 points 4 months ago Didn't he already partially do that? He also appears to be letting Russia (and no one else) through the blockade to sell oil to Cuba. permalink fedilink source parent [–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 1 point 4 months ago Trump's stubby little thumb has been on the Russian side of the scales since he got into office. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] CheeseNoodle@lemmy.world 11 points 4 months ago Didn't he already partially do that? He also appears to be letting Russia (and no one else) through the blockade to sell oil to Cuba. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 1 point 4 months ago Trump's stubby little thumb has been on the Russian side of the scales since he got into office. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works 18 points 4 months ago If russia doesn't want to have their stuff blown up, they can stop at any time by not occupying Ukraine anymore. It's literally their choice. permalink fedilink source parent