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Why I don't think AGI is imminent (dlants.me)
submitted 5 months ago by to c/Aii@programming.dev
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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.bestiver.se/post/930220

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[–] 3 points 5 months ago (1 child)

I'm quite convinced AGI cannot be achieved on a Turing machine, whatever its size or complexity.

Arguments against it are mainly based on Gödel's incompleteness theorems and are described in books like "Minds and Machines - Alan Ross Anderson", "Consciousness in the universe. A review of the ‘Orch OR’ theory" or even "Mind" from Alan Turing himself.

I'm not claiming I understand all the arguments written in these books, but it seems that Gödel's incompleteness theorems also apply to universe and consciousness. To briefly summarize Gödel's incompleteness theorems, it states that a formal system cannot describe everything. There will always be thing which are beyond his reach. A Turing Machine is a formal system. This means that a Turing Machine will never be able to simulate our universe or replicate consciousness, and thus to replicate a human brain.

However, it could be feasible with Quantum Computer that are not based on formal system.

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  • [–] 6 points 5 months ago* (1 child)

    I think you're misunderstanding the incompleteness theorems.

    Gödel’s incompleteness theorems also apply to universe and consciousness

    Sure, if you assume the universe can be described by a computable formal system. Godel's theorems apply only to computable formal systems.

    To briefly summarize Gödel’s incompleteness theorems, it states that a formal system cannot describe everything.

    That's a gross oversimplification. It really says that (1) there are true statements about formal system S which cannot be proven within S and (2) S cannot prove its own consistency.

    This means that a Turing Machine will never be able to simulate our universe or replicate consciousness, and thus to replicate a human brain.

    You've previously assumed that the universe is a computable formal system. But all computable formal systems can be modeled as a Turing machine. This is a contradiction.

    However, it could be feasible with Quantum Computer that are not based on formal system.

    How would a quantum computer even work if it weren't described by a formal system?

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  • [–] 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

    That’s a gross oversimplification.

    Off course it's a gross simplification ! It's a 1 line comment regarding one of the most fundamental theorem of modern mathematics. If some mathematicain came here, he would also say your comment is still a gross oversimplification. Stop nitpicking.

    You’ve previously assumed that the universe is a computable formal system.

    I'm paraphrasing what I understood from the 3 books I read. Turing machine is deterministic. If given the same inputs, you have the same ouputs. But Quantum mechanics is not. First, because you cannot put a quantum state exactly in the same state that another one (No-cloning theorem), then because quantum result are intrinsectly probabilistic and are not the consequence of a mechanical procedure. So, univers cannot be fully simulated by a finite Turing machine (and even maybe by an infinite one ?). This has been recently proven, and the proof rely on Godël's theorem: https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.22950

    How would a quantum computer even work if it weren’t described by a formal system?

    Seems like there is still no formal system to fully describe Quantum Mechanics. There are mathematical models, but there are models, not exact description. And even Feynman said it may be impossible to fully understand quantum mechanics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SczWCK08e9k

    I'm putting conditional everywhere because I'm not a physisist. If I'm wrong, please put sources.

    Then, there is the Orch OR’ theory which state that consciousness arises from quantum processes. This theory is currently heavily criticized, so for now it's more a question of belief than proven statements. That's why I started my first comment by:

    "'I'm quite convinced AGI cannot [...]" and not by "AGI cannot [...]"

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