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German welfare state 'can no longer be financed' — Merz (www.dw.com)

submitted 11 months ago by Davriellelouna@lemmy.world to c/europe@feddit.org

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[–] Melchior@feddit.org 1 point 11 months ago (1 child)

Nope.

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[–] killingspark@feddit.org 1 point 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 child)

Hm. That doesn't seem to match this graphic. I heard that on the last "Lage der Nation" Podcast they did. I'll see if I can find the source the references there

Edit: found a german source here: https://www.bpb.de/themen/soziale-lage/demografischer-wandel/196643/auswirkungen-des-demografischen-wandels-auf-die-sozialsysteme/

Weil die Geburtenquote hierzulande aber gut vier Jahrzehnte bei rund 1,4 Geburten pro Frau stagnierte, ist inzwischen jede Generation ein Drittel kleiner als noch ihre Elterngeneration.

This says every generation is about 33% smaller than the one before it, which would make the ratio stay pretty unbalanced

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[–] Melchior@feddit.org 1 point 11 months ago (1 child)

Migration. The 20-30 age group is the most likely to move and a bit older is also the normal age to have children. So basically people move to Germany have children and stay. This makes the entire pyramid somewhat stable. Obviously this requires Germany remaining intressting as a migrat destination.

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[–] killingspark@feddit.org 1 point 11 months ago (1 child)

Wouldn't this be reflected in the pyramid I posted above?

Afaict migration helps to stabilize the ratio, but is seemingly not enough improve it. To do that we would need to have more migration than we currently do.

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[–] Melchior@feddit.org 1 point 11 months ago

It is and it does. In the 1970s there were about 800k births per year, but the pyramid you posted shows significantly more then 800k population for the 45-55 age group in Germany. The population of Germany is still growing and pretty much every forecast has been predicting a decline for a long time.

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