I have seen the EU-OS/Suse discussions for some months now. However, Ubuntu/Arch/Fedora are extremely mature projects. So competing against them will be hard.
I want to know how realistic the scenario (described by the question) is.
They literally wanted to close source as much as possible afaik.
But unsure if its true. Somethinf in that direction of fedora abd locking down was a thing. It rose a question on GPL if its really working or allowed, as they abused loopholes