The idea is that after some kind of cease fire, russia will churn out stuff for 3-4-5 years (so mebbe 1.000 tanks?) and then not go full frontal against NATO but say take a bite out of Lithuania, just to see what the response will be.

Like they have been doing since forever (Chechnya, Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine and so on).

There are ways Russia can attack that doesn’t include massive tank charges

They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn't mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia's war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.

Yes, years down the line doesn't sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.

Both things can be true because Germany is talking about risks in the upcoming 5 to 10 years, while this issue is relevant today.

They absolutely can.

Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.

A few thousand soldiers that are very well equipped might lose to 10x as many badly equipped enemies.

I think they would lose, but they might not think so.

We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it's an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.

If you know anything about current Russian government, you'd know that one necessarily follows the other. The more desperate Russia gets, the less reserves they have, the more bold and aggressive they're getting. There is a combination of factors leading into it, both psychological and material.

Everything written about this conflict (by anyone) is propaganda. The enemy is a powerful and maximally oppressive force we all need to fear, but is also so weak it's losing equipment fast and its final defeat is only a matter of time.

Have you never worked in an organization?

You can have as many preparation meetings as you want and still be on your ass when the day of judgement comes.

Russia wouldn't exactly not try, but they have a very 19th century realpolitik take everything and exploit the fuck out of it approach. I would have said that's silly. now, not so sure it isn't working

They can flood the Baltics with drones and cause plenty of chaos and destruction.

Taking over a Baltic state is feasible. NATO might react by sending helmets and prayers.

Who said the attack would be with conventional armed forces?

Russia can't even take over Ukraine, let alone half of NATO to even make it into Germany. I personally think this is just fearmongering on the side of our elected officials so the military industrial complex can make a few more bucks with money from the state.

Russia is still ramping up military production on a wartime economy, to be used after the Ukrainians stop fighting back. Also their production focuses on their modern options for land and air. I don't know what their naval production is doing.

• We're on the verge of total victory

• The enemy is prepared to launch its biggest attack yet

Is the same war time propaganda we've been served up for decades. Iraq/Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Kosovo, Vietnam, Korea...

The news coverage is totally divorced from what is happening on the ground. There's even a term for it.

Credibility Gap