455 WTNT65 KNHC 161520 TCUAT5

Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1120 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near 917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

$$ Forecaster Beven/Kelly

235 WTNT35 KNHC 161432 TCPAT5

BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
• Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 62.8 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this afternoon. a turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected this afternoon, and Erin could become a Category 5 hurricane. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 923 mb (27.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to continue producing areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$ Forecaster Beven

509 WTNT35 KNHC 161152 TCPAT5

BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 800 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
• Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. While the eye has wobbled westward during the past few hours, Erin is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near
145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$ Forecaster Beven