Okay, before people start beating me up, I'm not arguing for complacency, but this headline is more than a bit click-baity.

This is a small poll, and per the poll's methodology (scroll down, keep scrolling.... nope keep going... ok... there you go - emphasis mine):

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including an oversample of 818 registered Republican voters, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from July 23-27, 2023. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.67 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 3.96 percentage points for the likely Republican primary electorate.

Not only did they over sample Republicans, their margin of error is almost 4% within that group.

This feels like the NYT attempting to establish a narrative based on a very small, biased sampling of data. Remember that the mass media wants to amp up the uncertainty levels (which drive engagement and advertising revenue), and with Trump basically blowing out the primary, they'll need another spectacle to ensure that it appears to be a close contest down to the finish line. The timing of the poll release and the headline is also suspect, especially as this poll was taken before the news of the latest indictment, yet presented as if it's a reaction to today's news.

That being said, I think it is an accurate portrayal of sentiment from those who still consider themselves Republicans. I don't believe, given the small sample sizes and admitted bias, that it's an accurate picture of the country.

Again, that's not an argument for political complacency - rather, it's one against media driven narratives relying on biased polling that make you scroll down six pages of tables to find their methodology.

This can't be true,

Trump is a convicted rapist and known criminal that emboldened domestic terrorism.

Biden is actually doing a great job.

These two things are not equal.

All it takes is for Biden to develop a sudden health problem, as old people sometimes do; then it's Trump vs Kamala Harris and we're fucked.

If anything this should scare the Democrats. Imagine if the Republicans nominated someone even slightly decent?

I said it after 2020 with all the trouble he had getting elected, Biden probably should be a 1 term president and not run for re-election.

It makes me crazy that we're even talking about this and it's more than a year away. Our election cycles in the US are too damn long.

Is this another landline poll? Those are notoriously and increasingly useless.

Propaganda works great, doesn't it?

These numbers never really matter.

This should not even be possible. The propaganda machine in place since Nixon apparently works. People are fucking stupid.

With such a small sample all you can really take from this is that both parties will receive votes. This says next to nothing about how close the race will be.