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[–] 1 point 6 days ago
[–] 121 points 1 week ago (6 children)

traders on prediction markets don’t think so, at least not for some time.

There’s just a four percent chance on Polymarket that Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027.

On Kalshi, there’s just a 6.8 percent chance the US will acquire any new territory before 2027, though the odds are slightly better on a longer timeline. There’s a 22 percent chance the US will acquire a new territory before Trump’s term ends on January 20, 2029.

🤮 Why the actual fuck are journalists reporting on what "prediction markets" "think"? Between this and "which Europeans see as a violation of Greenland's sovereignty" this article seems to casually legitimize trump's claim

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  • [–] 57 points 1 week ago (4 children)

    I think they have (unfortunately correctly) realized that the prediction markets can be bastardized into a quick and dirty public opinion poll without needing to do any of that dirty icky work like sending out questionaires or controlling statistical poll biases

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  • [–] 13 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Worse, prediction markets measure what people with money (AKA the ruling class) think is going to happen. Given their higher access to information and people to more or less objectively process that information, that means you'd expect a decent correlation between prediction market predictions and reality.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago

    Indeed, these are way better than a simple opinion poll if your goal is an actual prediction. People who are good at making predictions will be rewarded and continue to participate, those who are just going by vibes or whatever will lose money and hopefully learn to stay away. "Insider information" is kind of the point of markets like this, it's a way to surface that information to the outside world.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 week ago (3 children)

    Indeed, I am tired of "public" opinion (which is more wall-street-type-dudes' opinion) being even considered on matters like this. I don't care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening, the only opinion that matters is Greenland's, as unless they democratically decide to join the US (no chance of that happening anytime soon), anything else is an invasion plain and simple, no matter if polymarket says that will make line go up

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  • [–] 3 points 1 week ago

    I don't care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening,

    I mean you should, because if a critical mass of Americans supports it it's gonna happen. Welcome to the business end of American imperialism.

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  • [–] 16 points 1 week ago

    The only reason to consider them (which is not what the media is doing) is because we've already confirmed Trump and likely countless other corrupt goons of his have been placing massive bets on events they know for a fact Trump is going to act on. Insider "gambling".

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    [–] 52 points 1 week ago

    bitch ass also said magnets stop working in water.

    oh, and he's a pedophile

    and a rapist

    and a cannibal, allegedly

    he lies more than any official since george washington

    track what he does, not what he says. octogenarian nazi fuck

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  • [–] 36 points 1 week ago (3 children)

    He's still talking about this? I legit thought he forgot about Greenland.

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  • [–] 25 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    I recall reading that obsessions are a common symptom of dementia.

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  • [–] 32 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    Trump is turning the US into the fourth member of the hoodlum group of countries along with Russia, North Korea and Israel.

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  • [–] 20 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    But here's the catch, he never plans on leaving.

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  • [–] 19 points 1 week ago (1 child)
  • [–] 19 points 1 week ago

    The orange rapist is making shit up again.

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  • [–] 17 points 1 week ago

    Donald Trump kill yourself

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  • [–] 13 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Trump says a lot of things...

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    Even though most of the things he says will never happen it's still worth noting that this is where American discourse has reached. Their president can freely threaten to forcibly annex former allies simply because he wants their territory, and yet for some reason this isn't an impeachable action. It's not even a top headline.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Lmao Trump says a lot of things

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  • [–] 4 points 1 week ago

    The amount he says during his word salads of speeches is amazing. I don't think I've heard anyone say so many words without a tiny bit of relevance to the previous sentance, or the previous comma if typing it out. Truly if you want someone to speak without saying anything meaningful, he's your guy.

    Okay I'll correct, I don't think I've heard anyone not under some supervised care say so much irrelevant to what they were saying one sentence ago. Though I guess technically he is supervised but not in my intended meaning.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 week ago

    Not happy with raping a few countries, he has to rape them all.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Is he really planning on leaving though?

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  • [–] 6 points 1 week ago

    Voice over: No it won't. Never will.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago

    The Supreme Orange Turd is a delusional imbecile, he couldn't even keep a porn star under control.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago (2 children)

    Sure, he can absolutely have it. IF he can point to Greenland on an unmarked map within 1 second.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    wow. so as soon as the impeachment verdict is in. thats gonna be fast.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    But he never plans to leave office

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    World war 3: US taking on all comers.

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