I'm willing go bet a lot of people making weird bets like this are doing the equivalent of insider trading. The whole concept of betting on random news is ripe for the opportunity for people with insider knowledge to always win big off of the losses of gambling addicts.

This is the least of it. Representatives entire families are set for life. Somehow, everybody in their family gets stinking rich after election, and their book is always a "NYTimes best seller" because they are bought by the campaign (and dumped in a landfill), insider trading is rampant, super-PACs.

I'm okay with someone in the military picking up some extra cash. Family has to eat, whether government is "shut down" or not. I hope it was some smart ass buck private.

In the USA politics is the number three easiest way to achieve "financial security", only inheritors and prosperity gospel preachers have it easier.

400k seems relatively low for the usual scum. Could be a lower rank military personnel, or a staffer.

Can we all go on polymarket and start a betting pool that Peter Thiel will not be violently assassinated by the end of the year?

When there is no punishment, the system must be working perfectly.

You have to be an idiot to gamble at these sites. I already feel like an idiot for having money in the stock market with all the insider trading, but thanks to inflation you're fucked if you do and fucked if you don't.

TIL there’s a website where anyone can bet on anything.

Well yea, is it not blatantly obvious to everyone that bad actors will use this "bet on anything" bullshit to grift the system?

I'm certain the people who run the websites know this and don't give a shit, because it's profitable.

How is this legal

Polymarket, Kalshi and others are Insider trading systems camoflauged as a "Truth Seeker" but at the end, It is a gamble even worse than a gambling casino. The insider trader has a incentive to stack odds against oneself and "beat" a better likelihood in the market. Even as a truth finder, It works at the last second before the actual reveal.

My question is what are the other predictions

I still want to know who made $$millions shorting American and United Airlines before 9/11.

The obvious question is: what other bets did they make? (though those may of course be decoys)

Barron is doing this shit.

How does one bet on random things like this. What’s the website? I have a few predictions of my own…