Washington this morning is waiting for House Speaker Mike Johnson to release his plan to keep the government funded past Friday, with Johnson and other leaders planning to brief House Republicans in a 3 p.m. call.

Given the timetable (less than a week), Johnson’s experience dealing with shutdown politics (near zero), and the level of disarray in the GOP conference (high), the chances of a shutdown are growing.

Sources on the Hill and at the White House said they are adjusting travel plans accordingly and preparing to spend the holiday in D.C. A last-minute short-term clean CR is always possible, but over at the White House they are not holding their breath.

Aides are betting on Johnson not being able to figure this out and are preparing along two tracks.