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I am genuinely confused by hexbear's opinion on the Ukraine war (lemmygrad.ml)
submitted 2 years ago by to c/meanwhileongrad@sh.itjust.works
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What I have learned:

  • Russia has already won the Ukraine war
  • Which NATO started
  • A lot of people in the West think that Ukraine should surrender
  • Also Ukraine was the world's main provider of CSAM
  • Also Ukraine is exploited by the West but if they can unite with Russia then their economy and everything else will finally be alright

It's literally like a bizarro world and everyone is over there agreeing with it. I'm genuinely confused by, who even are these people (what is the mixture of Russian bots / Russian-aligned ordinary people / confused Westerners / some other explanation.)

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[–] [S] 6 points 2 years ago (1 child)

I mean the evidence exists that NATO is a substantially higher power here

Also, as I said, there’s a huge difference between “I know it’s not an ideal outcome but I’m scared and want to save my skin” - I won’t say someone’s always wrong for saying that, by any means - and saying to someone else who’s fighting and suffering to defend themselves “I know it’s not an ideal outcome but you should be scared, and accept it to save your skin.” It’s like cowardice by proxy. Especially while they’re winning.

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  • [–] -2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    NATO is still a collection of nation states with interests, being powerful does not mean you can be trusted. (As the US has shown multiple times)

    The people actually fighting this war, don’t want to, they need to be forcibly conscripted by the Ukrainian government, I have met multiple people that can no longer renew their pasport because the Ukrainian government (and western governments by extension) want them to die at the front.

    And finally Ukraine is losing, and probably always was, the economic and manpower difference is just too big. There was a point in the summer of 2022 where Ukraine had a position to get a deal on relatively good terms, and there actually was a peace process going on. But somehow this broke down, I’ve heard rumors that it was the UK or the US that convinced/coerced Zelensky to walk away. I really hope that isn’t true because that would mean they have a lot of blood on their hands, and mostly Ukrainian.

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  • [–] [S] 4 points 2 years ago* (1 child)

    The plot thickens

    Ukrainians I know do not agree with your assessment of blame, to put it mildly

    Which direction is the front line moving over the course of the last year? I am curious what your picture is of the reality on the ground. Before the US aid package came through, it was 100% fair to say Ukraine was losing or on the verge of starting to lose, but now is very different on any time scale you could select. In my reality at least. Why do you say they are losing?

    Follow up question, where do you get your information? From media (which?), from Lemmy, where?

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  • [–] -2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 child)

    https://www.ft.com/content/d7e95021-df99-4e99-8105-5a8c3eb8d4ef

    https://youtu.be/slkn2-N3oR0?si=d9Z_4KEvKS5kYXjp

    If you read between the lines of ft articles it becomes quite clear that the manpower problem is almost insurmountable, but there are also other articles from nyt or Dutch or German mainstream media that try to package it positively but can not hide the underlying problems. And then there is John Mearsheimer who gives a higher level overview, that to me sketches quite a clear picture of Ukraines prospects.

    Plus I like to listen to “war nerd radio” podcast. It’s not a news source perse, but they discuss the Ukraine war sometimes and they seem to be better at predicting what is to come than most news papers. For example they were rightfully quite skeptical about the great summer offensive of 2023 whereas other sources were promising the conquest of Crimea.

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  • [–] [S] 3 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    war nerd radio

    Holy shit holy shit

    Is that Gary Brechner? I had no idea he was even still around, if it is; I liked him quite a lot, like a million years ago

    You are citing people I generally agree with, but I do not agree with what Mearsheimer is saying here. You're also pointedly ignoring my question about how the front line is moving.

    Just to take what I think of Mearsheimer's points in lightning round:

    • He talked about striking the homeland and escalation -- the US's approval for strikes inside Russia is very limited, for exactly this reason
    • He talks about S-400s mooting any strikes anyway, when Ukraine has been blowing up S-400s. They don't seem to be this dominating force for defending even themselves let alone the area where they're placed
    • Concerns about manpower are real, but also, they've been that way since the jump and the fucking front line hasn't gone anywhere. It's possible that Ukraine will get ground down over time but it hasn't happened yet and during the ammunition shortage would have been the most likely time for it to happen.
    • He talks about the motivation for strikes inside Russia to be "to up the ante" because Ukraine isn't winning -- it's just a weird framing. I don't think that is the motivation; I think Ukraine just needs to strike at forces that are attacking them instead of suddenly going hands-off as soon as something's 5 km across the border from them.

    IDK man. I'm not convinced. Want to answer the question about movement of the front line? And is this stuff in answer to my question about where you get your information? These people are generally pretty highly qualified people in my view, yes.

    For example they were rightfully quite skeptical about the great summer offensive of 2023 whereas other sources were promising the conquest of Crimea.

    Yeah that sounds pretty accurate from what I remember of Brechner. Just like Mearsheimer he has a record of having been accurate about the future, in retrospect, which is a pretty fuckin difficult thing to do.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Yes those are my sources and yes it is Gary Brechner aka the war nerd, he is sadly getting old but I really enjoyed his recent series on the us civil war. 

    I didn’t answer because I don’t know. I have heard it theorized that Russia is depleting the Ukrainian forces and building up behind the lines for a summer offensive, but also that the recent reshuffle of the Russian Security Council means that Putin expects the war to last until at least 2025. It is mostly speculation so not really a value add. 

    On all the details, I am just like most people dealing with limited information. And it’s hard to get a good idea what’s happening on the frontlines and on the broader strategic battle field. But there are sources I trust and sources that have shown to be at best incompetent and at worse straight up propaganda. This might be one of those rare morally uncomplicated wars, but the fact that the loudest voices in support of Israel are also oft the loudest voices in support of further escalations with Russia makes me skeptical.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 years ago* (1 child)

    Eh

    Russia is depleting the Ukrainian forces

    Yeah just like the US depleted those Vietnamese forces so effectively for so long and that was the key to their victory

    hard to get a good idea what’s happening on the frontlines

    But surely it is possible to see which direction they are moving, or not moving, on a scale of hundreds of km over years, no? I mean you're not obligated to actually follow through on the answer, but I think you can see what I'm getting at .

    loudest voices in support of Israel are also oft the loudest voices in support of further escalations with Russia

    ...

    Dude now you're just saying talking points.

    People on Lemmy like both Palestine and Ukraine because both of them got attacked by oppressive neighbors for basically no reason. The US State Department's position on the two is wildly inconsistent, but the position of most human people (or most people I interact with online at least) is not.

    "Further escalations with Russia." One, the State Dept is actually being very careful about laying down rules for use of US arms to try to avoid escalation. I suspect that most of what you mean about escalation is "no fair fighting back!" Two, if Russia doesn't want to get escalated against they can get the fuck out of the country and stop killing people. This crying about how everyone is being mean to them and it's really dangerous and everyone better stop it, right now, because it's escalation, while they are still doing their side of the fighting uninterrupted on someone else's sovereign territory, is a bunch of shit.

    Upset about the results of the peace talks? Pack your shit, get back across the border. Go home. There you go, peace.

    Want no escalation? Pack your shit, get back across the border. I suspect all your oil refineries and airbases and radar stations will suddenly stop blowing up without warning which you think is so improper. Etc, etc, and so on.

    Sorry to be rude about it again. But hey! At least I didn't come to your country and blow up your apartment building and kill a bunch of your friends and family.

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  • [–] 0 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    But surely it is possible to see which direction they are moving, or not moving. 

    It doesn’t matter where the frontline goes in a war of attrition, it matters what resources you have. This is why Ukraine is loosing, it has a manpower problem, the only resources the west can not help with. 

    Yeah just like the US depleted those Vietnamese forces so effectively for so long and that was the key to their victory. 

    Ukraine is not North Vietnam. I’m sorry to repeat myself but Ukraine has a man power problem, people don’t want to die for this cause. If anything, they more resemble South Vietnam, and we all know how that ended. 

    Dude now you're just saying talking points.

    Sure it’s a talking point, but it’s also true. Seeing Ursula von der Leyen advocate for war crimes in Gaza with the same vigor as supporting escalation in Ukraine makes me skeptical of her motives. Same goes for Blinken crying about Ukrainian civilian casualties and saying dead children are the price of war about Palestinians, kinda makes you wonder. And they make the decisions, not random guys and gals on Lemmy. 

    Want no escalation? Pack your shit, get back across the border.

    I’m not Russian, I have no power over what they do. Peace is complicated, and requires living with injustice, but in return you spare a lot of suffering from happening. 

    Sorry to be rude about it again.

    I mean I can rude as well. If you think this conflict is truly worth dying for, then go there, and go die.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 2 years ago*

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Blinken

    Surely "Anthony Blinken is full of shit sometimes" is something we can find some common ground on. I've never heard of this other person and her saying something dumb will not impact my assessment of whether Ukraine (or, for that matter, Palestine) should be allowed to defend themselves.

    I think mostly we are talking in circles at this point. Ultimately it doesn't really matter what you or I say about it; what plays out on the ground will play out on the ground whatever anyone's typed assessment of the conflict on the internet says.

    I can agree with a certain amount of the framing that Western governments as a whole sadly don't really give much of a shit about Ukrainian casualties and the overall outcome for the country. But I've spoken with and read from a large enough handful of Ukrainians that I am confident that your assessment of their feelings about the conflict is very wrong.

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