▲ 164 ▼ Trump Allies Have a Plan to Hurt Biden’s Chances: Elevate Outsider Candidates (www.nytimes.com) submitted 2 years ago by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/politics@lemmy.world 64 comments fedilink hide all child comments This works because almost all the US uses first-past-the-post elections for the Presidential general election. So you get outcomes like this: Scenario 1: Biden: 10 votes Trump: 9 votes Kennedy/Stein/West: 0 votes Biden wins the state Scenario 2: Biden: 9 votes Trump: 9 votes Kennedy/Stein/West: 1 vote Tied vote, decided by game of chance/lawsuit Scenario 3: Biden: 8 votes Trump: 9 votes Kennedy/Stein/West: 2 votes Trump wins the state This is why you see huge financial support from Republican billionaires for third party candidates who have no chance of winning.
[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 23 points 2 years ago (2 children) What makes these financers so sure their spoiler candidates will only take votes from Biden? permalink fedilink source hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] Ghostalmedia@lemmy.world 21 points 2 years ago* (1 child) Polling. Right now the polls show RFK and West pulling from Biden more than Trump, which is why right wing strategists want to promote those candidates more. Edit: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4568220-biden-trump-kennedy-polling/amp/ permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Atyno@dmv.social 9 points 2 years ago* It kinda makes them look even more short sighted tbh. Like yeah, you can look at "there's a few polls where he takes from Biden" and call it a day, but it's kinda missing the fact he's lost a lot of relevance already with no signs of stopping. It's kind of a catch 22: he's stealing votes from the low-info pool, but at the same time if he's not defined at all he'll make no impact by election day. Elevating him can fix that, but that risks those low info voters realizing what they're getting into and then start biting into Trump's numbers as expected. permalink fedilink source parent [–] silence7@slrpnk.net [S] 15 points 2 years ago* (3 children) They don't need that. All they need is to take more votes from Biden than they do from Trump. And the the polling makes it very clear that the 3rd party candidates as a group do exactly that. The benefit is something around a 3 percentage point advantage for Trump with the 3rd party candidates on the ballot vs not. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 6 child comments replies: [–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 14 points 2 years ago (2 children) Yeah idk, I haven't heard any Dems say they're going to break from Biden for someone like RFK, the dude is an anti science nut job and at least my circles see right through it. I have heard trumpists say they'd consider him if trump ended up in jail or whatever though. 🤷 Hopefully this strategy backfires spectacularly. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] xmunk@sh.itjust.works 10 points 2 years ago (1 child) Honestly, the bigger issue for dems has always been low enthusiasm leading to a lot of voters just refusing to vote. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Asafum@feddit.nl 1 point 2 years ago It's almost as if more people need to vote in the primaries Yeah it's more difficult with an incumbent because the Smarter Than You DNC decides a primary is bad, but if we actually voted in numbers then instead of just allowing the old people who actually vote in primaries to decide who is the one running, we'd actually have a candidate people can be excited for. permalink fedilink source parent [–] silence7@slrpnk.net [S] 9 points 2 years ago (2 children) So far the polls don't show that kind of backfire. Would take a bunch more people hearing about why he's actually running to create it. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] lennybird@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago Republicans have done this for decades to great success. Usually they'll push a wedge-driving issue with online operatives sometimes posing as grandstanding leftists who will vote 3rd party, independent, etc. It rarely works for Dems, but Libertarians did screw over Trump to some extent last election thanks to Jojo permalink fedilink source parent [–] thefartographer@lemm.ee 2 points 2 years ago "Shit, Rita, that's what we're getting paid to do, not what we're getting paid to say!" permalink fedilink source parent [–] anticolonialist@lemmy.world -4 points 2 years ago This is 'splitting the vote' nonsense. We wouldn't support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot. permalink fedilink source parent [+] anticolonialist@lemmy.world -8 points 2 years ago This is 'splitting the vote' nonsense. We wouldn't support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Ghostalmedia@lemmy.world 21 points 2 years ago* (1 child) Polling. Right now the polls show RFK and West pulling from Biden more than Trump, which is why right wing strategists want to promote those candidates more. Edit: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4568220-biden-trump-kennedy-polling/amp/ permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Atyno@dmv.social 9 points 2 years ago* It kinda makes them look even more short sighted tbh. Like yeah, you can look at "there's a few polls where he takes from Biden" and call it a day, but it's kinda missing the fact he's lost a lot of relevance already with no signs of stopping. It's kind of a catch 22: he's stealing votes from the low-info pool, but at the same time if he's not defined at all he'll make no impact by election day. Elevating him can fix that, but that risks those low info voters realizing what they're getting into and then start biting into Trump's numbers as expected. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Atyno@dmv.social 9 points 2 years ago* It kinda makes them look even more short sighted tbh. Like yeah, you can look at "there's a few polls where he takes from Biden" and call it a day, but it's kinda missing the fact he's lost a lot of relevance already with no signs of stopping. It's kind of a catch 22: he's stealing votes from the low-info pool, but at the same time if he's not defined at all he'll make no impact by election day. Elevating him can fix that, but that risks those low info voters realizing what they're getting into and then start biting into Trump's numbers as expected. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] silence7@slrpnk.net [S] 15 points 2 years ago* (3 children) They don't need that. All they need is to take more votes from Biden than they do from Trump. And the the polling makes it very clear that the 3rd party candidates as a group do exactly that. The benefit is something around a 3 percentage point advantage for Trump with the 3rd party candidates on the ballot vs not. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 6 child comments replies: [–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 14 points 2 years ago (2 children) Yeah idk, I haven't heard any Dems say they're going to break from Biden for someone like RFK, the dude is an anti science nut job and at least my circles see right through it. I have heard trumpists say they'd consider him if trump ended up in jail or whatever though. 🤷 Hopefully this strategy backfires spectacularly. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] xmunk@sh.itjust.works 10 points 2 years ago (1 child) Honestly, the bigger issue for dems has always been low enthusiasm leading to a lot of voters just refusing to vote. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Asafum@feddit.nl 1 point 2 years ago It's almost as if more people need to vote in the primaries Yeah it's more difficult with an incumbent because the Smarter Than You DNC decides a primary is bad, but if we actually voted in numbers then instead of just allowing the old people who actually vote in primaries to decide who is the one running, we'd actually have a candidate people can be excited for. permalink fedilink source parent [–] silence7@slrpnk.net [S] 9 points 2 years ago (2 children) So far the polls don't show that kind of backfire. Would take a bunch more people hearing about why he's actually running to create it. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] lennybird@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago Republicans have done this for decades to great success. Usually they'll push a wedge-driving issue with online operatives sometimes posing as grandstanding leftists who will vote 3rd party, independent, etc. It rarely works for Dems, but Libertarians did screw over Trump to some extent last election thanks to Jojo permalink fedilink source parent [–] thefartographer@lemm.ee 2 points 2 years ago "Shit, Rita, that's what we're getting paid to do, not what we're getting paid to say!" permalink fedilink source parent [–] anticolonialist@lemmy.world -4 points 2 years ago This is 'splitting the vote' nonsense. We wouldn't support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot. permalink fedilink source parent [+] anticolonialist@lemmy.world -8 points 2 years ago This is 'splitting the vote' nonsense. We wouldn't support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 14 points 2 years ago (2 children) Yeah idk, I haven't heard any Dems say they're going to break from Biden for someone like RFK, the dude is an anti science nut job and at least my circles see right through it. I have heard trumpists say they'd consider him if trump ended up in jail or whatever though. 🤷 Hopefully this strategy backfires spectacularly. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] xmunk@sh.itjust.works 10 points 2 years ago (1 child) Honestly, the bigger issue for dems has always been low enthusiasm leading to a lot of voters just refusing to vote. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Asafum@feddit.nl 1 point 2 years ago It's almost as if more people need to vote in the primaries Yeah it's more difficult with an incumbent because the Smarter Than You DNC decides a primary is bad, but if we actually voted in numbers then instead of just allowing the old people who actually vote in primaries to decide who is the one running, we'd actually have a candidate people can be excited for. permalink fedilink source parent [–] silence7@slrpnk.net [S] 9 points 2 years ago (2 children) So far the polls don't show that kind of backfire. Would take a bunch more people hearing about why he's actually running to create it. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] lennybird@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago Republicans have done this for decades to great success. Usually they'll push a wedge-driving issue with online operatives sometimes posing as grandstanding leftists who will vote 3rd party, independent, etc. It rarely works for Dems, but Libertarians did screw over Trump to some extent last election thanks to Jojo permalink fedilink source parent [–] thefartographer@lemm.ee 2 points 2 years ago "Shit, Rita, that's what we're getting paid to do, not what we're getting paid to say!" permalink fedilink source parent
[–] xmunk@sh.itjust.works 10 points 2 years ago (1 child) Honestly, the bigger issue for dems has always been low enthusiasm leading to a lot of voters just refusing to vote. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 2 child comments replies: [–] Asafum@feddit.nl 1 point 2 years ago It's almost as if more people need to vote in the primaries Yeah it's more difficult with an incumbent because the Smarter Than You DNC decides a primary is bad, but if we actually voted in numbers then instead of just allowing the old people who actually vote in primaries to decide who is the one running, we'd actually have a candidate people can be excited for. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] Asafum@feddit.nl 1 point 2 years ago It's almost as if more people need to vote in the primaries Yeah it's more difficult with an incumbent because the Smarter Than You DNC decides a primary is bad, but if we actually voted in numbers then instead of just allowing the old people who actually vote in primaries to decide who is the one running, we'd actually have a candidate people can be excited for. permalink fedilink source parent
[–] silence7@slrpnk.net [S] 9 points 2 years ago (2 children) So far the polls don't show that kind of backfire. Would take a bunch more people hearing about why he's actually running to create it. permalink fedilink source parent hideshow 4 child comments replies: [–] lennybird@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago Republicans have done this for decades to great success. Usually they'll push a wedge-driving issue with online operatives sometimes posing as grandstanding leftists who will vote 3rd party, independent, etc. It rarely works for Dems, but Libertarians did screw over Trump to some extent last election thanks to Jojo permalink fedilink source parent [–] thefartographer@lemm.ee 2 points 2 years ago "Shit, Rita, that's what we're getting paid to do, not what we're getting paid to say!" permalink fedilink source parent
[–] lennybird@lemmy.world 9 points 2 years ago Republicans have done this for decades to great success. Usually they'll push a wedge-driving issue with online operatives sometimes posing as grandstanding leftists who will vote 3rd party, independent, etc. It rarely works for Dems, but Libertarians did screw over Trump to some extent last election thanks to Jojo permalink fedilink source parent
[–] thefartographer@lemm.ee 2 points 2 years ago "Shit, Rita, that's what we're getting paid to do, not what we're getting paid to say!" permalink fedilink source parent
[–] anticolonialist@lemmy.world -4 points 2 years ago This is 'splitting the vote' nonsense. We wouldn't support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot. permalink fedilink source parent
[+] anticolonialist@lemmy.world -8 points 2 years ago This is 'splitting the vote' nonsense. We wouldn't support your candidate if they were the only person on the ballot. permalink fedilink source parent