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Biden campaign announces it will target flipping Trump’s Florida (thehill.com)
submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by to c/politics@lemmy.world
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President Biden’s reelection campaign announced Monday that it will aim to flip Florida, targeting the home of former President Trump.

Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo that investing in Florida is part of the Biden campaign’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2020 with more than 51 percent, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.

…

The Biden campaign has also set its sights on flipping North Carolina in November. Trump won North Carolina by a tight margin in 2020, and Biden visited the state as part of his tour of every battleground state last month.

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[–] -2 points 2 years ago* (1 child)

Some people in FL are starting to wake up

You say that, But it's went from +3 Biden, to +7 trump in those 4 years...

And Jacksonville mayor?

The Republican candidates combined for roughly 51% of the vote, while the Democrats combined for 48%. This was the highest first-round combined vote share for Democrats in a Jacksonville mayoral race since the 1995 election.[54]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Jacksonville_mayoral_election#Results

Dems did win the runoff by about 9k votes, but...

A city going barely blue in no way makes up for statewide polling.

Biden needs to be shoring up support in the States he barely won that got him into the White House last time, not taking them for granted and attacking Florida in 2024.

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  • [–] 8 points 2 years ago

    Gotta be careful with polling results. By necessity they're weighted to match the most recent turn out demographics. Which is usually just a bit of an error range. With issues like abortion and weed, the younger vote changes a lot more than the polling algorithm. So the error bars are huge, and adjustments to add accuracy are most likely to just wrong. It's one of the two major reasons for upsets at the ballot box. The other being the Bradley effect, which could also be very much in play the other direction.

    Consider that the 7% lead Trump has right now is the average from two polls with less than a 4% error, that were 5% apart from each other. So at least one of them is just blatantly wrong, and really the odds are it's both.

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