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Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory | With all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected (www.nature.com)
submitted 2 years ago by [M] to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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[–] 6 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

Wasn't there a YouTube video few months ago were one climate scientist talked that they removed few models from the accepted list of climate models because those models started showing rapid heating. And the reason for their removal was that they predicted too fast heating, that has never happened. And these models were accurate in the past.

Edit: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4&t=668s&pp=ygUWcmVtb3ZlZCBjbGltYXRlIG1vZGVscw%3D%3D

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  • [–] 9 points 2 years ago

    That's sort of misleading though. They say they discarded the hot model runs becase paleoclimatology research tended to suggest suggest that couldn't happen. Hausfather etal. Andrew Dressler was involved and had a response on Mastodon

    However :) people like Professor Janson Box etal suggested it will happen way faster then most models predict.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTdJRy1uqsc

    The precautionary principal (because we have no planet B) should have us doing everything we can to get in front of this. Worst case scenario, rich asshole high emitters have to live like ordldinary folk more quickly. We can keep ignoring it until we collapse civilization like John Schellenhuber etal suggest, which does seem to be the option we've chosen.

    I don't think it matters either way, we ignore it because it's inconvenient not becase we dont have the tech. We have long known how to ride a bicycle and stop flying for example... we just keep emitting, emissions increased again last year.

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  • [–] [S] 2 points 2 years ago

    The last big community run of models had a bunch of them use a new cloud model, which forecast much more heating in the future because they stopped having clouds form at some latitudes.

    That hasn't happened, and isn't what's responsible for the temperature jump in 2023.

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