The WSJ reports that China is on an extensive push to drive out Western tech companies from the country and replace them with domestic alternatives. China reportedly started its domestic expansion in 2022 with a highly secretive "Document 79," an initiative focused on deleting Western tech companies from the country. Since then, China's new plan has been in full effect — domestic alternatives have replaced most Western software providers.
When initiated two years ago, Document 79 was a super sensitive document that only high-ranking officials were purportedly shown. Security was so paramount that copies of the document were not allowed to be made. The initiative set out by Document 79 is to replace foreign software in China's IT systems by 2027, with state-owned firms required to provide quarterly updates on their progress in replacing foreign software with domestic alternatives.
Two years later, the fruits of Document 79 are now apparent. Microsoft, HP Enterprise, and Cisco's market share in China has fallen drastically in the past several years. In 2018, HP Enterprise had a 14.1% market share in China, but in 2023, that has fallen to just 4%. Cisco's market share has halved in the past five years down to just 8%. Microsoft's Chinese sales today account for just 1.5% of the company's overall sales.
I don’t necessarily believe the United States will collapse, but we can already see that it is becoming an increasingly unreliable partner that basically flip flops on all positions depending which party is in control. They are also seemingly weary of their role as global hegemon, adapting a more isolationist and inwards oriented position.
This doesn’t mean that the u.s. will break down completely, but I could see some secessionist nonsense happening in the near future, or the looming slip into religious fascism. The country has massive internal problems that hamper its ability to maintain its role as global player, aside from their direct interests.