I would argue smart phones were the last game changer (iPhone was 2007 I think). If you're privileged (like in the grand scale of the world), a smartphone is a quality of life upgrade. But all over the planet, the access to wifi combined with a super cheap smartphone allows people to start businesses they otherwise would have been able to, open and manage bank accounts etc. when it would have never been possible.

I kind of see the logic of dismissing AI as a trend, only because pointing to each tech dad and claiming it will change the world gets old, and saying "I called it" 10 years later when it does change the world doesn't really do anything.

But at the same time, chat gpt3 is only a little over year old, which I would mark as the beginning of public enthusiasm and attention for AI. Really great voice recreation AI is even newer, and both are already shredding through entertainment, calling out a "plateau" when it's only "plateaued" for a few months is a little hasty.

Edit: I know the person I replied to wasn't on the other side of this, I was just continuing the convo.

Definitely agree. Innovation has slowed down. Time will tell if the 1900s was just a complete fluke or not, but personally I think at least part of the slow down is due to the slow collapse of capitalism and democracy. Feels like we're just trudging along purely on inertia since the end of WW2. Like we're an old beat up car that's been patched and duct taped together so much. The whole system feels like it's just ground to a halt and all 'new' progress is just marketing from grifters who've captured the system.

I agree that while it’s powerful and the capabilities are novel, it’s more limited than many think. Some people believe current “ai” systems/models can do just anything, like legal briefs or entire working programs in any language.The truth and accuracy flaws necessitate some serious rethinking. There are, like your above example, major flaws when you try to do something like simple arithmetic, since the system is not really thinking about it.

Huh? What does having some jobs replaced have to do with humanity being replaced?

Jobs can disappear overnight due to technology updates, and it's always highly disruptive when that happens. If large sectors suddenly have to find new jobs, then that creates highly stressful environments and people suffer during that transition.

The reason AI is scary is because it seems to be something that could result in many job losses very quickly without opening any new accessible jobs as working with AI tools isn't super accessible.