It’s an older article, but the point stands!

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[–] 4 points 3 years ago* (1 child)

if we divide each of those percentages by 50, we should come up with the odds of dying in a given vehicle per year,

I'm being very nitpicky but this isn't quite how it works, if you have a 90% chance of survival one year, you'd have 0.9^2 = 0.81= 81% chance of surviving two years in a row. With that in mind, the odds of dying should be relative to the fiftieth root of surviving fifty years, which gives:

  • Motorcycle: 0.478%
  • Car: 0.151%
  • Ferry: 0.065%
  • Amtrak: 0.0086%
  • Airplane: 0.0014%

Without additional decimals it's hard to see the change for the really small numbers but it doesn't make much of a difference in reality.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 years ago (1 child)

    Thank you, 1/5 of lifetime motorcyclists dying in wreck doesn’t add up.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 years ago (1 child)

    I have no idea about the statistics about motorcycle fatalities and for personal reasons I'd prefer not to get into them. I was just commenting on the way the statistics were calculated year-by-year with the assumption that the original statistics for fifty years were accurate. That being said, it's possible that those statistics were not completely correctly calculated as well.

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