I think the cat's out of the bag. There's no stopping it at this point. And even if ever person who runs a Mastodon server got together to push back, defederated with Threads and BlueSky, and tried to stay away, it wouldn't even be a blip on the radar for these big players.

To be honest, I'm not sold on federation in general for social media. I think it's an answer to the wrong question. We're asking "how can we make social media better?" and not "why do we need social media at all?"

Federation has shown itself to be extremely problematic. You have people coming and going from other instances that you don't control and can't enforce in any way other than to just block the instance. If I have e.g. a Mastodon instance based around a safe, positive space for the queer community, and others have instances based around bigotry, white supremacy, transphobia, etc. (which they do), then I either allow bigots to come and go, or I have to spend an inordinate amount of extra time on moderation. Same goes for Lemmy/kbin/etc.

People are also continuing to think with a limited frame of reference. The idea of federation is still "how can I get all my 'content' in one place?" because we've been dominated by these monolithic walled gardens for the last decade. Sure it might be annoying to have to have multiple logins for difference services, but I'd rather that over having a single place where Nazis can come and go as they please with few to no tools to stop them.

Look at the fediverse’s monthly active users, it’s declining. There’s a pretty solid wall of friction when trying to participate and the vast majority of people won’t ever be a part of it in its current state. There’s no upward tend here and I doubt that it’s ever going to be a real danger for meta.

At the moment, because it's almost impossible to get in without knowing someone who's already in. Currently, after about 10 months, Bluesky has about 2 million users (a sixth of the Fediverse). However, those 12 million Fediverse users have accumulated over seven years. Based on the statistics of fediverse.observer, the majority of those accounts seem to be inactive as well. Mastodon shows growth (about 100k per month) but other parts of the Fediverse are shrinking in activity.

Wikipedia has a graph of Bluesky's user base growth:

At its current pace, it'll take over a year and a half for BS to overtake the Fediverse (in total accounts, four or five months when looking at active users), but I expect those numbers jump up when the platform leaves beta. Wait list + current user base on Bluesky already exceeds the reported "active user" count on Fediverse Observer.

My personal anecdata: all the (semi) corporate entities I used to follow are over at Bluesky right now. Some, annoyingly, use it as their primary platform, while others cross post the same way people did when Mastodon gained mainstream attention. A few of the people/organisations I used to follow on Twitter are on Mastodon (almost exclusively people in the tech sector and a government service here or there) but I haven't seen any growth whatsoever. Various experiments with Mastodon and other fediverse media also seem to have ended, with people leaving the Fediverse for various reasons (Alec from Technology Connections has done nice write-ups of why the Fediverse kind of sucks if you're "internet famous" right now, and the reactions from Fediverse evangelists below show why that's going to stay that way for a while).

I want Bluesky to either commit to federation, or for the Fediverse to take over, but neither seem to stand much of a chance against any corporation with VC money right now. Most of the internet doesn't seem to be interested in federation and even here on Lemmy many people are confused by it (i.e. "I want to send this person a message but when I go to their profile it says I'm not logged in" because they went to the other user's home instance instead of their own, an easy mistake to make).

Sun sued MS to stop them from calling it "Java™", then Oracle failed spectacularly to EEE it when they lost the API lawsuit against Google.

MSIE's popularity arose from monopolistic practices by Microsoft, not its EEE tactics against HTML, which failed miserably.

I would know it, I was there: everyone started making websites in Flash because it was the multiplatform solution, even if it had more security holes than a female duck cornered by a flock of horny drakes, only MS sellouts used MSIE's proprietary extensions to HTML, only Oracle sellouts used post-Sun Java... and it all went down the drain the moment JavaScript evolved to a point of allowing polyfills to make a single codebase compatible with all browsers.

Now all browsers are FOSS-based, with de-branded forked versions making the rounds, and it's good.