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CNN Polls: Trump leads Biden in Michigan and Georgia as broad majorities hold negative views of the current president (www.cnn.com)
submitted 2 years ago* by [M] to c/politics@lemmy.world
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This is one to watch as opposed to all those nonsense national polls talking about which person is ahead or behind, we don't have a national election, we have 50 state elections.

In 2020 Biden won 306 to 232 Electoral College votes.

If he maintains all other states, but loses Georgia and Michigan, that would put him at 274, President by 4 votes.

I know, I know, "a win is a win", but when you consider the minimum number of EC votes per state is 3, winning by 4 is not a lot of wiggle room. Pretty much any other flippable state would throw it to Trump.

So, yeah, forget the national polls.

Watch Georgia:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Watch Michigan:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

If those two fall, it takes +1. Pennsylvania? Wisconsin? Nevada? Arizona? New Mexico?

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[–] 3 points 2 years ago (1 child)

Oh, goodie. Fivethirtyeight, which has gotten it wrong the last several times and which no longer has the founder or his model (i.e. under new management).

Totally accurate predictions a fucking year out, I'm sure. /s

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