It's not in any way guaranteed that KY will elect another Republican. It's a state-wide seat in a state that elected a Democratic Governor.

But for the moment, yes, Mitch being so obviously dead does hurt Republicans more.

The reason that are not admitting he's dead is because they don't think they could win a special election. That's the full reason.

They probably can't win in the general election in the current climate either, but that's a problem for November that Trump is working on. He's trying to steal the election, and that's what Republicans are pinning their hopes on.