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Chinese CXMT to Match Micron's DRAM Manufacturing Capacity This Year (www.techpowerup.com)
submitted 1 week ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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A particularly surprising discovery is that CXMT is constructing its cleanrooms—where the actual silicon is produced—in just around 12 months, whereas the rest of the DRAM manufacturing industry typically takes 21-24 months, nearly a full year longer.

Finally, the report notes that the Chinese government is encouraging CXMT to transfer its DRAM technology IP to other Chinese DRAM manufacturers such as JHICC, Swaysure, and YTMC's subsidiary XMC. This initiative aims to alleviate memory shortages domestically before CAMT-designed DRAM enters other markets, such as the EU and possibly even the U.S.

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[–] 5 points 1 week ago (1 child)

"CXMT is projected to produce about 350,000 DRAM wafers per month by the end of 2026, assuming all current projects are completed on schedule."

This is a small blurb on a random tech site, it's just giving a simple 'if all goes well' projection.

I'm sure they're not setting the entire undertaking up so that if one thing ends up slightly delayed everyone's heads will explode. It seems likely that they also have projections that take varying delays with varying parts and numbers of parts of the project into account, but that someone writing a small blurb on a tech site isn't really privy to the entirety of their forecasting.

I don't think they need you to rush in and save them from their folly.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    Why would you assume any of that? If there is one constant in large-scale engineering projects, it is project managers over-promising on what their teams can deliver. In this case, they are promising a miracle salvation from the global DRAM shortage, so a measure of scepticism is, I believe, warranted.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago (1 child)

    Everything, everywhere, doesn't always happen as it does in your frame of reference and experience. I find it unlikely that you're genuinely an expert in engineering projects of this sort and specifically in exactly how they're undertaken in China with large scale government support.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    I am not an expert in engineering projects in China, which is why I rely on 3rd party reporting to give me an idea of what is going on in that space. And when China makes what seems to me to be a preposterous claim, qualified by "if everything goes according to schedule," I am suspicious. Not because I particularly distrust Chinese engineers, but because the project managers in my own country are prone to the same tendency to overstate scope, and understate budget and schedule.

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