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Me_irl (lemmy.today)
submitted 1 month ago by to c/me_irl@lemmy.world
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[–] 9 points 1 month ago (3 children)

No one in their right mind is investing in SpaceX. The business is hemorrhaging cash and the only part of it that is even remotely viable is StarLink.

And StarLink has some serious -- although currently unrealized --risks related to competition from fiber, which is and always will be technologically superior, and the increasing potential for a satellite to go crashing through someone's living room.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 month ago (3 children)

    Aside from the satellites comment, people said / say the same thing about Tesla. If you invested in Tesla the day it went public in 2010 you'd be 400x+ richer today.

    To be clear, I'm not suggesting you invest in Tesla or spaceX, but the most successful investors separate morals from money. Does that make them bad people? Yes it does, but many get rich doing it that way.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 month ago

    Apparently investors also separate money from money because tesla's valuation makes absolutely no sense from a money perspective either with a PE ratio of over 300.

    What you're describing aren't investors, but gamblers benefiting from a rigged market.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago

    There is no way to invest in SpaceX while separating morals from money. The only reason to invest in it is vibes - aka personal morals.

    If you actually read their IPO documents, their assumed valuation is based on a comically large assumed customer market. In order to justify their IPO price, they assume that long term they will be getting about $30,000/year in revenue from 1 billion people. Take literally every person in the developed world. And then assume every single one of them is paying SpaceX $30k per year for some reason. That's literally, per SpaceX's own documents, what it would take to justify their IPO price. And the only way you're making a profit on that is if the price goes even higher.

    In order to grow 400x, SpaceX would have a market cap of $800 trillion. Global GDP is only $130 trillion. The only way to think a SpaceX investment is a good idea is the greater fool theory.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (2 children)

    If it was only about their space activities, then I could imagine investing in SpaceX.

    But according the the documents they released before the IPO, space related activities represent only 7% of their valuation, 93% of their valuation of AI.

    It does not make sense but apparently this is worth trillion.

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