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Anthropic confidentially files for initial public offering on US stock market (www.theguardian.com)
submitted 2 months ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 113 points 2 months ago (7 children)

Interesting. I thought companies usually waited until they at least had a good product or cashflow before going for enshittification.

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  • [–] 120 points 2 months ago (3 children)

    It is odd that the 3 big players are trying to rush to IPO... probably to dump their shit and cash out before the bag holders have time to sell... I've got a feeling they know it's going to crash soon.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    And there is a waiting time after the IPO before cashing out is possible, half a year or so. Critics with some knowledge expected the bubble to pop somewhere in 2027, so with the half year waiting period they have to make their move soon or they'll sell on the downslope.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    They have a lot less runway to enshittify than everything else we've seen recently. Because AI is way more expensive than anything else we've gotten for "free". Which means they're already on borrowed time.

    Hopefully they get it over with sooner rather than later. The longer it takes, the more my retirement savings gets fucked.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (1 child)

    Did the rule that allows 401k to be invested in stocks like this shit get passed? Cause that's going to fuck so many peoples retirement (mine included). And when these companies pop, we're going to be holding the bag.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 months ago (1 child)

    The mutual funds in a typical 401k are just a bunch of stocks like this, wrapped up in a value meal package.

    If you have a 401k, you probably already own stock in Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, etc...

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  • [–] 44 points 2 months ago* (1 child)

    Got to cash out their shares using your pension fund before they go bankrupt.

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  • [–] 19 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    Is there any way to get my 401k to not invest in this shit?
    I don't want my entire retirement to go up in smoke... Again. There isn't even that much of it 😭

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  • [–] 14 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 child)

    Real answer:

    Depends on who manages your 401k. Some servicers do allow 'custom' or otherwise 'alternative' management options, with some allowing you to focus on specific companies or industries.

    Others might take your call at least and if you raise enough of a stink you might get shoved into an alternative plan out of spite, but that's what you want, so you win.

    Joke AnswerTake out all your money, pay off the fee, use the money to buy a used Komatsu D355A crawler tractor and at least a half pallet each of of concrete bags and rebar as well as an extra diesel tank and a decent amount of diesel. Then just find your local senator's personal home and

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  • [–] 26 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    You forgot about option 3: VC money ran out

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago*

    we will know things have gotten worst, when conferences suddenly stop hositng AI startups events/ideas all the time. conferences near where i work is soley only doing AI related events nothing else. adjacent industry will likely suffer to like catering food to Ai companies.

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  • [–] 9 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    Thing is, they tried to show that public adoption was large enough to warrant a $100B+ value, that basically everyone wanted AI. That was the difference between a $20B valuation and 100+. But several failures have occurred the last few months that hints at the public at large not wanting to adopt their tech in such quantities and the longer they wait the worse a signal it might send for the IPO. Lack of adoption, lack of progress towards AGI, dwindling returns, ballooning costs.

    I estimate that the AI bubble will burst pre-IPO or during the IPO, thus not affecting the public at large. There's still a risk that they fudge the IPO numbers hard enough to create FOMO and people wanting to buy but they'd have to go dangerously close to fraud territory to make a good case. Just watch out for the first AI IPOs. There's likely a smaller AI company that'll go first that'll be a canary in the coal mine. If their IPO succeeds the big boys will make an attempt but if it fails they'll likely postpone an IPO indefinitely, making it a long, dragged out market correction, not a quick pop.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 months ago (1 child)

    Already happened with Cerebras and they landed at a stable 2x of the open. SpaceX is probably going to be next & set the real standard

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  • [–] 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 child)

    Cerebras makes really interesting hardware though. The engineering, even just the packaging and cooling and power delivery, is utterly insane.

    I have a server teardown saved that was so cool, they took it down from YouTube (for revealing too much I think).

    I hope they survive the bubble so their stuff can be used for oldschool small-model ML, which is what their stuff is actually good at.

    …And no one else is like that, except maybe Huawei. All the other “AI” ASICs are junk, nothingburgers, vaporware, or straight up pyramid schemes.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 months ago

    They're quite likely to survive, even in a worst case scenario. AI isn't going away and we still need hardware to run it. And in a worst case scenario they still have an inventory that keeps a certain value. For a pure AI company like OpenAI or Anthropic, in a worst case scenario their $100B could be worth 0 the next day. There's no inventory to sell out like they could in the housing crisis in 2008 or with internet infrastructure during dotcom.

    Those who sell shovels during a gold rush are generally safe. They might be overvalued during the bubble, but the shovels aren't going away. IMO from the little info I have on Cerebras it looks like they're even better positioned since their hardware is uniquely solving AI efficiency. During a market correction people start caring very much about efficiency and is almost entirely allergic to anything that smells of hype. If they need AI hardware they want the efficient ones.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 months ago*

    they enshittified first before actually putting out a "product", also with so many AI ceos suddenly coming out trying to peddle some form of the "innovation, it got anthropoic nervous. Thiel, Karp, ALTMAN,google, MS,,,etc did it all the same time.

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