I think this perspective is the real copium.

We'll see by January-ish, I guess, because until then both of our positions are unfalsifiable. But I brought up Vance having nothing with Democratic voters not because it's impossible to win that way, but because Vance simply isn't Trump and doesn't have his uncanny ability to "flood the zone with shit". He's shown e.g. with the Springfield, Ohio pet-eating hoax that, like Trump, he's not above insane, bigoted strawman issues to distract from real ones, but Trump probably almost really has been at the point where he could shoot someone dead on 5th Avenue and have it out of the news cycle two weeks later. (It's at least starting to turn now thanks to dipshit Republicans caring about e.g. easily visible gas prices.)

Trump isn't, of course, some magical creature – he's propped up enormously by Congress, online floods of disinformation by foreign adversaries, right-wing justices, news media, etc. Vance would benefit from some of that. But he doesn't have this insane, just-now-waning grip over the US' right-wing where he functionally can't do any wrong and, if he can, it's immediately forgotten about. Trump over the last 10 years has accrued an insane followership, and Vance inherits almost none of that. I think that, right now, Vance "enjoys" (or at least prefers) having Trump out in front as an incompetent, buffoonish shield to the general public while he can mostly stand away and do whatever work he wants to.

Edit: I forgot to address the "real copium" part, and enequivocally: no, it isn't. I badly want Trump out of office. I hold this belief despite what I'd want to happen (recognizing impeachment at this point is effectively impossible).