All candidates over 10% are qualified.

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[–] 1 point 4 months ago*

Dati and Bournazel have an alliance which may provide Dati with most of that 11.3%:

https://franceinenglish.com/p/rachida-dati-and-pierre-yves-bournazel-unite-in-strategic-alliance-for-2026-paris-municipal-elections

Knafo's 10.4% is obviously never going to Gregoire, bringing that combined vote to 47.2% (minus, say, 25% leakage, yielding ~42%).

Gregoire could gain Chickirou's 11.7%, minus leakage, yielding ~47% (of previous voters).

Then there will be voters who didn't participate in the 1st round. It's close, but I'd still give the edge to Gregoire.

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