An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.
....Under U.S. commodity trading laws, making trades based on death and war are illegal, since those kinds of bets create a financial reward for violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.
That by watching the money, you get the most current and accurate picture of the odds of something happening?
It's almost irrelevant that there is insider trading. The more money involved, the more reflective of reality the odds are. Money's gonna money, legal or otherwise.