Which is a very different topic than "Just going to ignore all the times modern militaries have lost to insurgent groups"

But sure, let's address your new argument while ignoring the old one:

People are calling for resistance.

Yes. And we need to understand what resistance is going to make a difference. One person owning a gun to protect themselves... isn't even going to accomplish the stated goal. A well trained militia... ignoring the fact that getting one of those takes a lot more time than we have, is also going to be of very questionable value once the civil war goes hot.

But going to protests and speaking to the community organizers and figuring out how to protect each other? THAT is proving incredibly effective... at least for this phase.

And of we do end up at all out war with the government, the military will likely shatter

Having spent years having to work with military folk and officers... I doubt it. That is an entire org built around "just following orders" and "being apolitical because I serve the office, not the man". Yes, people will bitch and moan. But they'll get told "It doesn't matter if you agree or disagree with the war. What matters is that you look out for the man in the trench next to you". And once the bullets start coming back, they will gladly hose down however many protesters or militia soldiers they can because "it is them or us".

be considerably less effective than the military that couldn’t defeat the Taliban.

Again, the Taliban did not defeat the military. The US government did. In fact, in most skirmishes (that weren't just ambushes and IEDs), we massacred them.

Because, "victory" in that case is convincing the christofacists to leave "their country". Which is the exact same reason the taliban just stuck around, waited for the coalition to leave, and went back to oppressing people.

But this also has the added factor that we already see with fuckface: It won't take too many massacres by the military before the soldiers that we thank for their service realize they will be massacred if they lose.

The only way a civil war goes beyond "We put down isolated groups of terrorists" is if the military (whatever branches) tends to align with different forks of the government. I... am not optimistic with that and suspect any isolated bases deciding to not support the christofacists will realize how quickly they run out of supplies. But it could happen.

The militias will, at best, be cannon fodder to stand in trenches. Which... is what we see in Ukraine. Trained soldiers can engage in maneuver combat and take ground. Conscripts/militia can get given a gun, pointed in a general direction, and try to prevent those maneuvers from working. But a well equipped combat force is still going to steamroll over them.