I don't think the GM's job is merely damage calculator. But this:
I’ll be fucked if I let a kobold derail the overall plan
I rather disagree with. If there's a plan then why are we rolling dice? I don't want to play to fulfill whatever the GM's plan is. They should just write a book. I've had many great, memorable, scenes that came about because the players had a challenge and they overcame it. Sometimes after running away and trying again. If I just decided "oh I guess the dragon's breath rolled really low" then, again, we should just write a story together. Or play a game that doesn't have such a big random factor.
Like, I also don't really enjoy a nameless kobold killing Finnigan the Fighter with a fluke natural 20 in what wasn't supposed to be high stakes. But the solution for me isn't to fudge rolls, but play a different game. I don't really like stupid deaths like that, so I don't play games that facilitate it. I know that's kind of "baby with the bathwater" for some people, but I really do think some people are fighting against what D&D trends towards, when there are better tools. It's a hammer. Sometimes you want a screwdriver or a pen.