a rolling distro might break just when you need it the most
Only if you run an update! It's not random. I only update once every two weeks or so when I know I have time to fix problems if they arise. Easy peesy. Honestly it's safer than Windows in that sense because Windows pushes updates on you and a broken Windows update did out me in a boot loop, post COVID even.
It's not a bad piece of advice, rolling is still the least stable, but there are better ways to phrase it.