I'm going to go out on a limb and say with a self-administered grain of salt that colonialism didn't really matter that much to European development in the grand scheme of things. Really we're looking at the Renaissance and the beginnings of capitalism here. The only contemporary society that could've competed on both fronts was the formerly-Abbasid, formerly-proto-capitalist Middle East, but the Mongols heavily derailed that. I'm not sure how correct the post is in general, but it does bear thinking how the Renaissance would've went had Florence met a fate similar to Baghdad.
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