Wouldn't that depend on your interpretation of The Prophecy, with someone (perhaps Anakin? perhaps Luke rather? perhaps Leia's 3rd son Anakin?) slated to "bring balance to the force"?

Though again, was that Anakin who helped Palpatine overthrow a corrupt and dying democracy (never you mind what it got replaced with...)

Or was it rather his son Luke who then overthrew that, allowing the cycle of death and decay and authoritarianism and then revolution to restart? Or, throwing it back was it rather Anakin but for a different reason (more locally minded to concerns directly related to force-users) since he overturned the corrupt establishment not of the Old Republic but of the Jedi Order itself, which had perverted its original intention by allowing themselves to get suckered into helping the rich stay rich and sticking it to the poor i.e. "defending the status quo", ignoring things like slavery while stopping things like robbery of the existing oligarchy?

Is "balance" a good thing? Although conversely, can anything in nature exist without it (bc of entropy or whatever)?

(And above I was entirely ignoring here the ass whooping handed out by the Yuuzhan Vong, but yeah that still works too: by overthrowing the Empire Luke restored the Republic to the cycle of conquer or be conquered, i.e. "balanced" in that manner of being animals that exist within the constraints of the natural order rather than perched on top of it.)

All of which is to say that while nothing is ever guaranteed in life, except the Force, Qui-Gon knew that the lad was somehow important, though for what... who could say.

Maybe we here though can say that it wasn't Obi-Wan that wanted to "gamble", with the assurances of a force-assisted victory, but rather it was Qui-Gon who wanted to gamble for real?