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Large Language Model Performance Doubles Every 7 Months (spectrum.ieee.org)
submitted 1 year ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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By 2030, AI will greatly outperform humans in some complex intellectual tasks. Discover how LLMs are doubling their capabilities every seven months.

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[–] 85 points 1 year ago (2 children)

*with 50 percent reliability.

Heck of an asterisk on this claim.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    That sounds like a coin flip, but 50% reliability can be really useful.

    If a model has 50% chance of completing a task that would cost me an hour - and I can easily check it was completed correctly - on average, I'm saving half of the time it would take to complete this.

    That said, exponentials don't exist in the real world, we're just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    That said, exponentials don’t exist in the real world, we’re just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.

    Yes, but the tricky thing is we have no idea when the seemingly exponential growth will flip over into the plateuing phase. We could be there already or it could be another 30 years.

    For comparison Moores law is almost certainly a sigmoid too, but weve been seeing exponential growth for 50 years now.

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