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How prediction markets create harmful outcomes: a case study (bobjacobs.substack.com)
submitted 1 year ago by to c/techtakes@awful.systems
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[–] 10 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 child)

Lol love how the good analysis just misses that people without disposable income are now excluded, it puts a price on participating in the public discourse.

The bullshit artist prevention also doesnt work, as we have a bullshit artist as the richest person in the world despite use being able to show all the bullshit he was wrong about but he still gets all the money. Despite there being no fsd, mars colony, covid over by april. Why would he bet on his takes that even now with all his exposed lies people still treat him like a nerdboy genius?

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  • [–] [S] 7 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    people without disposable income are now excluded

    The article does say/link:

    I’ve previously talked about how it may not always be ethical to require people to bet on their beliefs, and talked about how the interests of rich people could bias certain prediction markets

    As for

    The bullshit artist prevention also doesnt work

    In the footnote it does say:

    This doesn’t work for very longterm bets, and it also wouldn’t convince everyone, since conspiracy theorists still exist. Still, I expect it to be helpful on average.

    Although there's likely still an overestimation of how much it would help

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  • [–] 18 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I started reading the post about wealth bias and was immediately distracted by the fact that they're trying to call a government based on prediction markets a "futarchy" which speaks to these people being entirely the wrong kind of terminally online.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    @YourNetworkIsHaunted @Collectivist Oh no. Oh noooooooo

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    I saw those but I think it totally removes the pros, also my second complaint is that conmen would simply not join, and this will not expose them as frauds and they cant be made to join as forced betting on yourself is a crazy idea. (Also increases upfront costs for everyone more).

    It is all very much wargames.

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