You don't have any evidence of your conspiracy theory, just a distrust of Russia and China, or rather a trust in their anti-US stance. Fair enough. Where you go into transphobic conspiracy theory is when you then completely invent the idea that both of these countries are pushing "gender politics" as a wedge issue. The only purpose this serves, without any proof, is to undermine the experience of gender-nonconforming people. Russia in particular is extremely socially conservative, further adding to why this is akin to Q-Anon nonsense.
You're just doubling down on the transphobia at this point by automatically distrusting and attempting to discredit trans users. I recommend you talk to actual trans people and see what they think about suspecting they might be lying about their identities just because you disagree politically.