Abstract

Recent record-hot years have caused discussion over whether global warming has accelerated. Previous analysis found acceleration (i.e., increase in warming rate) has not yet reached a 95% confidence level, given natural temperature variability. We remove the estimated influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade.

Beware the “surprise” record high being blamed on an extreme El Nino on top of global warming otherwise consistent with IPCC estimates. Instead, record warmth provides additional evidence of high climate sensitivity and increased net climate forcing in the past decade.

If you bear with our discussion to the end, you will find some possible good news.

The 2026 global SST surpasses the 2024 global SST by mid-June; thus, given the lag, 2024 might remain warmer than 2026 in July, but the final five months of the year should have 2026 as warmer than 2024. We expect the gap in the stretch run (November, December) to be so large as to (unfortunately) make 2026 the hottest year – until 2027, which will be even hotter.

There are reasons to hope that the warming rate might slow down. [...] O.K., so we were grasping for straws. We didn’t really have good news. If we want the accelerated warming to slow down, we must get Earth’s energy imbalance (lower panel of Fig. 6) to decrease. That means the world needs to get serious about reducing the humanmade climate forcing, and the world has not got very serious yet. Sorry, we will keep searching for some good news in our planet’s data.

Not doomer porn. But this audience may be interested in this.

Back in the day a group of people decided to capture the stories and wisdom of the Appalachian Mountains. The results was a series of books that make for some good reading. It was never intended as collapse lit. But it shows how things use to be done so you might be interested. All the books should be available in the library systems.

https://www.foxfire.org/.

Here are some other links you may be interested in. Lehmans is a big supplier to the amish.

https://www.notechmagazine.com/
https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/
https://www.lehmans.com/
https://products.bigfrogmountain.com/shop/home.php
https://www.backwoodshome.com/
https://thebackwoodsman.com/

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome shows how acute thermal stress challenges prevailing assumptions about ecological resilience and adaptation. Extreme heat events are revealing physiological limits in forests that are not captured by conventional climate risk frameworks.